Stat of the Day, 6th September 2014
I had a feeling on Thursday night that Gone Dutch offered plenty of value at 6/1 BOG and in fact it was borderline E/W territory with a view to an insurance bet and the chance of nicking a couple of quid.
As it turned out, many of you went down the E/W route and made a small profit from a runner-up finish. Freddie Tylicki got himself and the horse into a bit of a cul-de-sac approaching the furlong pole and lost some ground. Once the gap eventually came he set off in chase of the leader and eventual winner Famous Kid.
Our runner was making ground with every stride and it looked like we might get narrowly beaten and begin to rue Freddie’s poor positioning earlier on, but if the truth be told, the winner seemed to be doing a bit more than hanging on, because as Gone Dutch looked poised to come alongside home, he found some more under pressure and won by a length and a half in the end.
I don’t like to chastise jockeys for split second errors in a tough job and on this occasion, I doubt we’d have won with a clear run anyway. That said, our horse ran his race and I took some comfort in backing a 7/2 runner at 6/1 and bets like that will make profit in the long run.
Last one of the week now, so I’m hoping to sign off in style with a winning bet in the…
Yes, that’s right, Kempton again!
And our selection for the last race on the card is Gravitational, trained by Chris Wall and to be ridden by 3lb claimer Ashley Morgan. This horse is stepping back down in class to compete at a course, distance and class that he was recently successful at, as he bids to bounce back from a couple of defeats that excuses could be made for (more of that later!).
Let’s start with Gravitational’s trainer Chris Wall, whose string have been performing consistently well this “summer (?)”…
In each of the last three months, Chris’ horses have won around 21% of all their races with 20 winners from their last 95 entrants over the last 90 days (6/29 in the last 30 days, 6/29 in the previous 30 days and 8/37 in the 30 days before that!). Those runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 have actually won 18 of 49 (36.7% SR) in that same time period, generating 47.1pts profit at an ROI of 96.1%.
Chris excels on the All-Weather, especially here at Kempton…
Since the start of 2011, Chris’ A/W record is 41 winners from 244 runners, a 16.8% strike rate that has yielded 142.2pts (+58.3% ROI) profit to date. Here at Kempton, the corresponding figures are 22 wins from 108 (20.4% SR) for 118pts (+109.3% ROI).
In handicap company, Chris’ A/W runners have won 35 of 158 races (22.2% SR) for 110.7pts (+70.1% ROI) and yet again the numbers are improved when looking at Kempton in isolation at 20 winners from 70 (28.6% SR) for 58.8pts (+84% ROI).
Ashley Morgan rides Gravitational today and is able to claim 3lbs…
Ashley has ridden for Chris on 67 previous occasions and has a good 23.9% strike rate courtesy of 16 winners, which in turn have brought in 153.6pts profit at an ROI of 229.3%! 14 of those winners have come from the 51 rides (27.5% SR) rides in handicaps where the 72pts profits made are the equivalent of 141.1% of stakes invested.
He’s 5/25 (20% SR) for 126.5pts on the yard’s A/W runners and he rides with his claim very well, winning 15 of 59 (25.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 146.9pts (+248.9% ROI).
Gravitational drops back to Class 4 today…
And his trainer has had decent results over the years with horses dropping back in class. In fact, since 2008 32 of his 180 class droppers have won at the lower grade, a 17.8% strike rate which has produced 124.4pts profit at an ROI of 69.1% and these figure are even better if we ignore the shorties and the longshots, as those running in the 3/1 to 12/1 price range have a 27/137 (1.7% SR) record which has made 102.1pts (+74.5% ROI) profit.
As I mentioned in passing earlier, Gravitational was a winner here at this level and over course and distance three starts ago. He then wasn’t great next time out, beaten by 9 lengths into 6th of 12 runners, but he ran well before weakening in the final furlong stepping up in trip to a mile. he was also up 5lbs for his win and four of the five horses in front of him have all won since, as has the 7th placed horse. The clear winner that day was tenor who runs here at 2.55 in the Series Final.
He was then dropped straight back to today’s 7 furlongs at , but he was up in grade to Class 3 and went off too quickly in a bid to stay with the leaders, an effort which took its toll as he slipped out of the frame into 5th place in the final furlong, running off the same mark as the 6th placed run. There could also have been an element of fatigue creeping in to his run, as that was his 6th race in 95 days.
Having had a bit of a rest (38 days), he’s back down to Class 4 today at a track and trip he likes and he has been eased down a pound in the weights, which should help his cause, although I’m a little surprised to see him without the hood that he wore when winning here in mid-June.
If you look at all the stats I’ve quoted above, the strike rates are pretty much in line with most of my selections for SotD, but you’ve probably noticed that some of the ROIs are very high indeed. I think that Chris Wall’s runners are still getting under the radar on occasions and some longer priced horses are defying the odds to win. And in fact, a cursory glance at the book for this race sees today’s selection at a longer price than we normally go for.
Gravitational is currently priced up at 8/1 BOG in a few places and with this being a reasonably competitive affair, I’m playing it a little more cautiously with a 0.5pts E/W bet this time. I’ve gone with BetVictor, but other firms are showing the same odds, as you’ll see when you…
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