Stat of the Day, 8th September 2014
Last week was a good week and we came very close to landing a third winning bet inside four days with an 8/1 E/W bet on Gravitational. The race was competitive, as I though it might be and we were just edged out for a place by half a length.
Our runner was sent off at 6/1 and just didn’t have the closing pace needed to catch the third-placed horse on the run in, but it was a bold enough effort and I have no complaints.
Long-distance hurdling represents a bit of a shift in action today, as we head to Devon for the…
And a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG on Champions Versions, who tackles this 3m3f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle just four days after winning by two lengths over a slightly longer trip at Sedgefield on Thursday. That was his first win of his 11-race career and this seven year old is turned out again quickly to see if he can repeat the feat.
He is trained by Lawney Hill…
…about whom I have a few stats to relay to you, but the core stat underpinning any selection trained by Mrs Hill is that you can back all of her runners sent off at 16/1 and make a blind profit. We love trainers like this.
More specifically, since the start of 2009, 110 of her 616 runners (17.9% SR) have been victorious and the level stakes profits have produced 108.4pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation to BOG odds), which is a 17.6% return on all stakes.
This is excellent for blind backing such a large number of runners. as today’s contest is over hurdles, it might be wise to just look at how her runners perform just over hurdles! And a 17.6% strike rate (51/290) is pretty much in line with the overall stat, but the level stakes profits of 64.6pts (+22.3% ROI) are a slight improvement.
A while ago, however, Matt told me that under certain conditions, the Hill runners could double your money for you. I, of course, wrote the details down and popped them in one of my notebooks (I write everything down! 😀 ) and those optimum conditions for backing Lawney’s horses are as follows:
Horse aged 5 to 8 (CV is 7) / Class 4 to 6 races (C5 today) / March to October (September) and since the start of 2008, Mrs Hill has sent out 338 runners fitting those criteria. 75 of the 338 (22.2% SR) were winners and the 392.3pts level stakes profits produced from these runners is the equivalent of 116.1%.
So Matt was right, you could more than double your money! Incidentally, the yard’s runners fitting that bill here at Newton Abbot are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 11.1pts (+100.9% ROI).
Our selection ran as recently as four days ago, won’t this be a hindrance?
Possibly, but history would suggest otherwise.
Handicap hurdlers aged 7 to 9 who reappeared within 2 to 6 days of their last outing and were priced between 2/1 and 9/1 went on to win 136 of those 655 quick returns since 2008. This 20.8% strike rate has, so far, generated 162.8pts profit at an ROI of 24.9%.
Not only did he run 4 days ago, he won 4 days ago…
NH horses running within 5 days of a win last time out have actually won 286 of 801 follow-up efforts since 2008, which is a fantastic strike rate of 35.7%.
As you’d expect from in-form horses, they’re generally well backed which affects the ROI from the profits, but these runners still give a return of 15% above stakes invested via a total profit of 119.8pts.
This year alone, the record is 28 winners from 69 (40.6% SR) for 12.74pts at an ROI of 18.5%.
Because Champions Versions ran from 3lbs outside the handicap for his win last time out, his 5lb penalty is only effectively 2lbs and if he runs like he ran at Sedgefield, he could very well go in again. The very able Aidan Coleman is, once again, on board, as he was last week (8521 in the horse) and the horse has produced all his best form at this type of trip and the going today will be similarly good to what he faced in the North East.
This could be a fair test of stamina and although he is 2lbs higher in the weights, he is actually bottom weight of the 7 runners and receiving chunks of it all round.
He’s a little shorter in the market than I normally go for, but he’s still a bit longer than I expected, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Champions Versions at 11/4 BOG.
I’ve gone with Coral, but at least three other firms are offering that same price, so why not take your pick of the bookies, when you…
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