Double Dutch, 8th September 2014
Results weren’t great for me on the DD last week, but there was a sense of them improving day by day without actually winning, before we finally struck on Saturday with two nice victories.
As expected, Captain Cat was fairly comfortable in the Group 3 contest at Haydock, which was just as well, since our other selection was last home of the six runners. Captain Cat also drifted very slightly in the market which gave us a couple of extra pennies towards race 2…
…where Jelly Fish continued his fine run of form, taking his career tally to four wins from eight with a 2 lengths victory at a well backed 2/1. My original fancy Pas de Cheval was a disappointing 4th of 5, some 17 lengths off the pace and only one length shy of giving us a very strange first & last in both races double.
As it was, we rounded off the week with a nice return of 9.78/1.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Captain Cat: won at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Short Squeeze: u/p at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Jelly Fish: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Pas de Cheval: u/p at 11/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
343 winning selections from 1201 = 28.56%
112 winning bets in 313 days = 35.78%
P/L : +65.23pts (+10.42% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here are Monday’s runners…
Individually, both Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have very good records here at Brighton and both are in decent enough form. When they combine, especially with two year olds, they’re difficult to beat and I expect that to be the here with 11/4 BOG chance Shadow Rock.
This one chased home a decent looking prospect at Newmarket last time out, having made most of the running before capitulating to a two length defeat. He’ll have learned plenty for that run and with Mr Hughes booked for the first time, should improve further which should actually be enough here to improve the Hannon team’s remarkable record with 2yr olds at Brighton (8/16 so far!).
I’d expect the challenge to come from Best Example, who was fourth on debut at York eight weeks ago. He was half a length behind the third-placed horse who went on to win next time out. The 6f was probably a little too sharp on debut for a horse with a Derby entry and the extra furlong is sure to help here, as is the benefit of having gained some racecourse experience. He is Saeed bin Suroor’s only runner of the day and the yard is 7/14 here in the last 4 yrs. At 11/4 BOG, Best Example stands every chance.
At 2/1 BOG, Robins Command looks good value to defy a small 3lb rise in his bid to land a hat-trick and continue an amazing run of form this year. Craig Nichol takes the ride again and it will be the 7th time he’s ridden the horse. He had never got on board prior to steering his mount to a 2 length defeat at Sedgefield in April, but has been the only jockey to ride him this year and their record together currently reads 211211 with the only other defeat being by just half a length.
Robins Command is a double course and distance winner (2 from 2) and his record on good ground reads 21211, so no fears there either. it’s pretty hard to make a case for any of his five rivals to beat him, but the nature of the Double Dutch is that I need a backup plan and with this in mind, I just about have a slight leaning towards City Line, who despite having been around the block a few times in his 54 races today, is still relative unexposed over fences, with just five starts prior to today.
The best of those efforts was undoubtedly his length and a quarter defeat to Robins Command here over course and distance 40 days ago, when the other two runners in the race were miles adrift, including today’s reopposing Toledo Gold, who he beat by 28 lengths. That was his only effort over fences at this track, but prior to that he had finishes of 221 over similar (within 0.5f) trips to today and if he jumps as well as he did here last time out, City Line would be the best bet at 4/1 BOG to chase the selection home and complete a possible forecast.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Shadow Rock / Robins Command @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Shadow Rock / City Line @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Best Example / Robins Command @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfred)
Best Example / City Line @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)