And The Winner Is…

And the winner is…

Last week, I invited geegeez readers to submit their angles for squeezing optimal value from Peter May’s excellent speed ratings, which have recently been incorporated into the comprehensive Geegeez Gold stable of tools, tips and numbers.

Dr May has created a couple of tools to aid the process, and it seems as though many of you enjoyed delving into the data. There were over 70 entries, and judging them was a fun challenge, but one where Chris and I had to be quite clinical in the final reckoning.

With a first prize of a lifetime subscription to Gold, and a runner up prize of a year’s subscription, it will have been well worth the time for a couple of clued up site visitors. But who?

Below, I’ve included not just the winner and runner up, but also some of the shortlisted angles as well. And I’d like to give special mention to Matteo who, although not winning, contributed significantly to the entries and must have burned up a fair amount of midnight oil in the process. Good work, Matteo!

So, to the short list. and each of these entries had a decent (three figure) number of qualifiers, meaning that they’d be a) more statistically significant and b) likely to throw up more qualifiers going forwards. Chris and I ran through all entries independently of each other, and the winner and runner up appeared on both of our lists.

Shortlisted

Paul Harrison’s Under-Rated Non-Handicap Form

Race Age: All Age Races
Race Grade: All Handicap
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: All Distances
Field Size 5 to 40 runners
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses aged 2yo to 6yo
For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
For horses off the track between 0 to 28 days
Pos LTO: Won Second Third
RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
Using Exchange Prices

33 wins / 113 runs – 29% S/R
0.95 ROI

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maverick99’s Long Distance Handicap Hurdle system

Race Grade: All Handicap Hdl
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
Race Distance: 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f 3m3f 3m4f 3m5f 3m6f
Field Size: 2 to 20 runners
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
All race age categories
For horses aged 6yo to 7yo
For horses rated 80 to 185
Using Exchange Prices

84/418 20% SR
Profit £0.66/£

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Runner up

Bing’s Recent Form All Weather Warriors

Race Age: All Age Races
Race Grade: All Handicap
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f
Field Size: Any
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
Genders: geldings
For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
Pos LTO: Won Second Third
Using Exchange Prices

Wins 62/Runs 257
Profit £0.42/£1

Bing wrote:

I have long favoured backing geldings on the all weather, especially in longer races. I think strength is important in these races which is why I’ve gone for 4yo’s to 6yo’s (Some horses older than that win obviously but in general I’m not fond of backing horses much older than that on the flat).

I also think good recent form is a big factor on the AW hence the placing and number of days rule and I don’t think there’s much mileage in backing short prices so none of my systems would include runners below 5/2.

Bing wins a year’s free subscription to Geegeez Gold, worth £197, which includes access to the Peter May speed ratings of course.

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Winner

Hud’s 2yo All Weather Maidens

Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
Race Grade: Maiden Race
Tracks: All Tracks
Going: All Weather
Race Distance: All Distances
Field Size: Any
Months: All Months
Race Class: All Classes
Years: 2009 to 2013
For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 4.00/1
Using Exchange SP
167 wins from 398 runs 42%SR 0.11 Profit/£

Chris and I both loved the simple inclusive nature of this, allied to the big strike rate and the large number of qualifiers (roughly 80 a year). 11% ROI is better than good on such an approach, and the logic of backing fancied top rated runners on the all weather stacks up, as they’re often racing against horses without AW form.

Those horses don’t have a rating, as turf figures don’t count, and the implication is that the market over-plays the importance of turf form in all weather maidens.

Hud wins a Lifetime Gold subscription (value priceless 😉 as it’s not currently available) – well done sir.

**

I’m currently working on configuring a report to pull together various ‘best of the ratings’ angles and, where they lend themselves to systematic calculation, we’ll include the above on the report.

I will need to discuss with my clever techie people, but my hope is that we can include all four of the above angles.

Very well done to the shortlisted entries and the winners, and huge thanks to all who took part. If you’d like to use the analysis tools (PC only), they can be downloaded from within this post.

Matt