Double Dutch, 9th September 2014
It was a strange start to the week, as we had a non-runner in both races, which severely affected our chances of success, reducing our four doubles down to two short priced singles and one solitary Rule 4-deducted double.
As it was, both runners were beaten, with the closest to success being Robins Command in the later contest. He was headed late into the run in and although he stayed on well enough, he was just outpaced/outfought, succumbing to a defeat by a neck.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Best Example: u/p at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Shadow Rock: non-runner (adv 11/4)
Robins Command: 2nd at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
City Line: non-runner (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
343 winning selections from 1203 = 28.51%
112 winning bets in 314 days = 35.67%
P/L : +63.73pts (+10.16% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are my selections for Tuesday…
Considering this is a Class 3 race, it looks pretty poor on paper to be honest and shouldn’t take much winning. On bare historic form, Green Door should be taking this one relatively comfortably, but (and there’s always a but!) things haven’t quite developed how he would have liked over the last year. He was a Group 2 winner this time last year at Chester, beating the likes of Extortionist (subsequent Gr 3 winner and beaten by just half a length by Sole Power in the Nunthorpe last month!) and also Wind Fire, a double winner in Listed company.
The problem for Green Door was that his Group 2 success took his OR from 94 to 109 and stopped him being competitive in two further runs last season. He reappeared in the Gr 1 King’s Stand at Ascot in June off 105 and ran creditably enough, 7 lengths behind Sole Power, but needing a run after an 8 months absence. Since then, he has shown signs of a return to form with two runner-up finishes in his last three runs and this is a step down in class for him. He must be in with a decent shout here at 9/4 BOG.
I was torn between Boston Rocker (3/1 BOG) and Ajjaad (9/2 BOG) as the second pick, but I feel the former might just need the run on his first start for 310 days, whilst conditions seem ideal for the latter who also represents better value at the odds.
Ajjaadd‘s form line doesn’t inspire confidence in all honesty, but he always tends to travel well yet seems to get unravelled in big fields. He is, however 7 from 25 in races of 11 or fewer runners and has a record reading 21315 in these smaller (7 max) fields. He’s usually a strong finisher and if they don’t go off too hard, could set this one up for him. He’s 2 from 2 over course and distance with both CD wins coming in the month of September and he has four wins and four places from 11 efforts at this grade, so he knows what’s required here and 9/2 BOG might be a good price.
Just five are due to go to post and I can’t see beyond the two 7/4 BOG joint favourites taking this one and a possible forecast to boot.
In no particular order, Oh Right comes here seeking a 17-day hat-trick to extend a brilliant run of form over fences this year which reads 11323411, the first of those four wins came off a mark of 72 and he won the latest contest at Sedgefield on Thursday off 91 and now comes here another 7lbs higher. That might seem a little onerous, but the 10yr old is in the form of his life and 7lbs wouldn’t have stopped him last week.
He had the race won from a fair way out and was eased right down on the run in and still scored by nine lengths. You don’t often see horses of his age raised by 20lbs in the course of a year, but another good performance at 7/4 BOG today will probably do just that.
Peachey Moment is the other 7/4 BOG joint favourite and although his win at Bangor 11 days ago was his first victory in 19 starts over 27 months, he’d actually been running to a consistent level despite the long losing run. Bar being pulled up once, he only failed to make the first five home twice in that run, making the frame seven times. His yard are going well of late (10 winners from their last 30 runners with 10 other top-3 finishes) and he has performed to decent level in his two previous efforts over course and distance, finishing third on both occasions.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Green Door / Oh Right @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Hills)
Green Door / Peachey Moment @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Ajjaadd / Oh Right @ 14.13/1 (9/2 & 7/4 : Coral)
Ajjaadd / Peachey Moment @ 14.13/1 (9/2 & 7/4 : Coral)