Stat of the Day, 10th September 2014
Sam James attempted the same hold-up tactics aboard Modify that has served him well last time out. The problem was that when asked for an effort, there simply wasn’t anything there of note. Sam did his best to cajole her into a run, but she looked very one paced and perhaps she couldn’t cope with the extra 7lb weight.
Sent off at 3/1, half a point shorter than advised, she was eventually beaten by around 8 lengths into 7th place of the 10 runners and has probably left trainer David O’Meara scratching his head.
We’re stepping up in class today with a trip to the St. Leger Festival’s opening day and the…
Where I’m interested in the in-form John Gosden. John’s horses are on top of their game at present with 7 winners and 3 placers from 20 runners in the last fortnight alone. he’s also had at least one winner of each of the last seven days that he has sent runners out.
John has a good record here at Doncaster with 33 winners from 148 since the start of the 2010 season. This 22.3% strike rate has generated 29pts profits from 1pt level stakes bets at an ROI of 19.6%. The optimum price range for his runners is quite broad, but if you ignored those shorter than 6/4 (as we generally do here at SotD) and also those higher than 12/1 (likewise!), you’re left with 27 winners from 113 runners (23.9% SR) and profits of 52.7pts or 46.6% of stakes.
At this meeting in isolation, the record from the above stats are 8 winners from 25 (32% SR) for 31.7pts (+126.8% ROI), so we can see that this is a meeting he targets and in fact his record with all runners at this meeting over the last six seasons is decent enough too with 11 winners from 42 (26.2% SR) producing 33.8pts (+80.5% ROI) profits, so his Leger meeting runners are always worth looking out for.
It’s Hobson’s Choice today, though as he’s only got the one entrant and that’s the 5yr old male, Nabucco, who is priced up at 11/4 BOG for this Class 2 contest over 1m 2.5f , where he’ll be ridden by William Buick. (all of which is relevant/pertinent for what follows!)
I’m not entirely disappointed that all the Gosden eggs are in the one basket, as the stats suggest we’re in with a great chance of success here, because a breakdown of John’s runners here (11 winners from 42) over the last six seasons tells us that:
Males are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 42.5pts (+132.7% ROI)
Horses aged 3 and over are 7.28 (25% SR) for 36.2pts (+129.4% ROI)
Those priced from 5/2 to 7/1 are 6/15 (40% SR) for 23.5pts (+156.9% ROI)
Class 2 runners are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 23.1pts (+144.2% ROI)
Those running a mile or further are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 35.1pts (+106.2% ROI) and…
…those ridden by William Buick are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 20.8pts (+71.8% ROI)
You could, of course, go further and start mixing different permutations, but the sample size would become too small and therefore unreliable, but it’s fairly safe to assume that Nabucco would be an ideal Johnny G representative here today.
Nabucco’s 11/4 BOG best price I mentioned earlier is available with both Hills and Coral, but I’ve opted for the latter, as they’ll give me my money back if we’re beaten into second place by a head. it’s a small concession, but better than nothing! Elsewhere 5/2 BOG seems to be the norm, so if you’ve not got accounts with Hills and/or Coral (but you should!), you can always…
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