Stat of the Day, 9th September 2014
I’m going to be diplomatic here and just say it’s fairly apparent now why Champions Versions has only won once in his career. Aidan Coleman earned every penny of his fee yesterday aboard a horse who just didn’t seem interested and when that happens, your number is up.
The end result was a 4th place finish at 3/1, beaten by a good 27 lengths or so and giving us a poor start to the week.
The beauty, however, of a daily service is that you get a shot at redemption pretty quickly and with that in mind we’ll tackle the…
Where I’m going with David O’Meara’s 3 yr old filly Modify, who can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG. David’s horses are in good form at the moment having rattled up 16 winners from 94 runners (17% SR) in the last month for level stakes profits of 37.8pts, or 40.6% of stakes invested.
You could also have turned a small profit from backing all handicap entrants over the last couple of years, as 226 of his 1609 (14.1% SR) runners in handicap races have been winners and although the 55.8pts profit only represents a modest 3.5% return above stakes, it’s a good stat to work from.
From there, we can simply discard the A/W and NH runners as not being relevant today, giving us a record in turf handicaps of 191/1317 (14.5% SR) for 124.9pts (+9.5% ROI). It’s still not a stellar return, but we’ve almost tripled the ROI and more than doubled the profits by losing almost 20% of the bets.
We can further improve the numbers by simply looking at runners that fall closer to the kind of odds we’d normally play at for SotD, and if we only considered those running at odds of 9/4 to 9/1, we’d now have a much more palatable (and workable!) 105 winners from 515 for a strike rate of 20.4% and level stakes profits of 118.7pts at an ROI of 23.1% and now we’re talking.
David also has a good record here at Redcar with 29 of his 174 (16.7% SR) runners winning here and they have produced 31.9pts profit to date (+18.3% ROI). As always, I’m keen to drill down to see if today’s race fits in with the optimum conditions for his runners and in the last couple of years his figures have improved here to 21/119 (17.7% SR) for 43.5pts (+36.6% ROI).
Those are pretty decent course figures, but they include all runners. His handicappers alone have an 18.85 (21.2% SR) record which has generated 47.9pts at an ROI of 56.4% with today’s Class 6 level proving very profitable/successful for the O’Meara team with 8 winners from 30 (26.7% SR) for 36.1pts (+120.4% ROI).
If we also briefly revisit that 18/85 record in Redcar handicaps, we see that 17 of the winners came from the 57 runners priced between 9/4 and 12/1, which is good for us at SotD with the 29.8% strike rate yielding profits of 73.6pts, a whopping 129.2% of stakes and the Class 6 runners chipped in with 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for 38.9pts (+155.5% ROI)
David actually has a handful of runners here today, but I’m siding with Modify who was a course and distance winner here last time out and although the record books will show that she won by just a length, she seemed to have plenty in hand and a 7lb rise might not be enough to stop her.
That win LTO was also against fellow three year olds running on a level playing field handicap wise, but as this is an open age handicap, she gets an 11lb weight for age allowance, which means she’s actually on very good terms with her older rivals despite the rise in weight.
Another thing in her favour is the fact that her father is New Approach who was no slouch himself and has sired some decent runners to date. In fact his offspring have a decent strike rate on turf winning 106 of 555 (19.1% SR) races, but the ROI is quite low at 5.1% via 28.3pts profit, as the horses tend to get backed. However, there is profit to be made at the non-sprint trips and runners at a mile and beyond sired by New Approach are 48/241 (19.9% SR) for 95.3pts at an ROI of 39.6%.
His progeny are 5/11 (45.5% SR) here at Redcar and have made 19.2pts profit (+174.5% ROI) so far and of that 5/11 record, 4/8 (50% SR) were handicappers, making 16.6pts profit at an ROI of 207.2%.
3lb claimer Sam James was the pilot here last time out and timed the ride to perfection and it’s another positive sign that he’s on board again today, especially considering that he has a better than 1-in-5 record over the last couple of months, so he’s going well. I know some of you will want the numbers, so here’s his record over the last two months: 14 wins from 66 (21.2% SR) for 84.4pts (+129.9% ROI) profit.
I think Modify is still improving and the stats suggest another big run from her today. If Sam rides her as well as he did last time out, I’d be very surprised if she’s not there at the death challenging to notch back-to back course and distance wins.
You can currently get 7/2 BOG about that happening with three or four firms and I’ve decided to go with Hills today, but you should always…
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