Stat of the Day, 11th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2014

Nabucco wasn’t beaten by far on Wednesday afternoon, but beaten he was and I’m still scratching about for a bit of form, as I’m 0/3 for the week, but we’re still ahead for the month and it only takes one winner to get the ball rolling again.

The usual bit of housekeeping re: Nabucco is that he was 4th of 6, but only a length and a half off the winner in a tight finish. He was sent off at 2/1, so our 11/4 price represents 137.5% of SP and that is the key here.

It is, however, all well and good beating SP, but a winner would be nice and we stay at the Festival for another effort. This time, it’s the

4.25 Doncaster:

And a 1pt win bet on Luca Cumani’s handicap debutante, the 3yr old filly Blue Waltz at 3/1 BOG.

Luca Cumani has a good record here at Doncaster with 25 winners from his 121 runners (20.7% SR) on Town Moor since 2008. Those winners have, so far, generated 17.3pts profit at an ROI of 14.3%.

Closer inspection shows he fares better with his 3 yr olds, who have a record of 13 wins from 54 (24.1% SR) for 11pts (+20.4% ROI) profit with a 4/7 record this year. His 3yr old fillies have won 5 of 12 (41.7% SR) races in that same time, earning punters 10.5pts, or a return of 87.6% above stakes.

His turf handicap debutants also have a good general record in recent times and since 2009, 39 of 140 (27.9% SR) have won at the first time of asking, producing level stakes profits of 78.5pts (+56.1% ROI), with those sent off below 12/1 winning 39 of 129 (30.2% SR) for 89.5pts (+69.4% ROI).

His 3yr old handicap debutants are 31/106 (29.2% SR) for 45.2pts profit at an ROI of 42.6% and his females running in a handicap for the first time have won 18 of 48 races (37.5% SR) for 43.7pts (+91% ROI) profit.

It then becomes a given that his 3yr old females will be profitable on handicap debut and this is borne out by a record of 14 winners from 37 (37.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+61.8% ROI).

It’s a very small sample size, but the Cumani-trained 3yr old female handicap debutantes priced between evens and 4/1 have won 12 out of 18 races (66.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.9pts (+127% ROI).

She faces a slight step up in trip today, but an increased race distance is another feature common to many of Luca’s handicap debut winners. Since 2009 (again), those stepping up in trip (any step up) for a handicap debut have won 23 of 76 (30.3% SR) races for level stakes profits 52.8pts (+69.4% ROI) and if we imposed a simple 8/1 odds cap on those runners, we’re left with 22/65 (33.9% SR) for 48.5pts (+74.6% ROI) profit.

Andrea Atzeni’s on board today, he has a good record at this track and a good record for Luca Cumani and I see his booking as a positive sign of intent from the yard. Blue Waltz has a record of 221 so far and is improving steadily and whilst I don’t want to disrespect Shane Kelly, who rode her well to victory last time out, I just feel that Andrea might just get a bit more out of this one.

I’m on Blue Waltz (not literally, of course! The RSPCA wouldn’t like that!) at 3/1 BOG with Hills here, but the price is quite widely available (for now!), so to find your chosen bookies’ price…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Doncaster

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.