Double Dutch, 11th September 2014
A long overdue return to winning ways yesterday with two 5/2 winners that had both drifted slightly from my morning advised prices to improve the odds on the double from 9.16/1 out to 11.25/1. That not only shows the importance of BOG bookies, but also how much difference a very slight drift can make to a double.
The two winners only moved out to 5/2 from 9/4 and 85/40 respectively, but improved the odds on the double by almost 23%.
First up was Dream Approval who was pretty comfortable in beating second choice Intruder by two lengths to set us on our way with the added bonus of a 6.3/1 forecast for those playing that way.
And based on recent form, we then had an agonising near-seven hour for the last race of the day, where James Fanshawe’s Celestial Knight rounded off a good day for both ourselves and the trainer. Our selection just proved the best in a tight finish, winning by a head in front of a pair of dead-heated runners-up who themselves only beat the 4th-placed horse by a head: a handicapper’s dream finish.
As a brief aside, I mentioned James Fanshawe as having a good record at Kempton, he had two winners and a runner-up from last night’s three runners!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Dream Approval : won at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Intruder: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Celestial Knight: won at 5/2 (adv 85/40)
Bennelong: u/p at 4/1 (adv 13/2)
Results to date:
346 winning selections from 1211 = 28.57%
113 winning bets in 316 days = 35.76%
P/L : +65.86pts (+10.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m now looking for back to back doubles with these on Thursday…
Panther Patrol is absolutely flying at the moment, having won each of his last four races. He’s raised 4lbs today for his latest effort, but that aside, conditions look ideal for him again today. His trainer has a 19% strike rate here over the last 5 years, the horse has won 5 times (from 16) over today’s trip, jockey John Fahy is 5/14 on board him and the horse is 3/9 at this level.
Form and stats make him the obvious starting point here, but the weight means he’ll need a career best today, which is reflected in his current 7/2 BOG price tag, but he’s on a roll and I wouldn’t rule him out lightly.
Should he fail to cope with the added burden, then I’d expect Debit to be the most likely beneficiary at 100/30 BOG. He’s very lightly raced and therefore underexposed after just three Class 5 maiden outings. An unplaced effort over 7f where he lost three places in the final strides tiring was the sandwich between two runner-up finishes at today’s 6f trip. He was unlucky to bump into Caffeine last time out, with the that horse subsequently stepping up to Class 3 to win at York next time around (last Sunday).
Debit’s opening mark of 73 looks pretty fair and should give him a chance here, as should the booking of Luke Morris in addition to a small 2lb weight for age allowance.
Coolfighter is another horse on a bit of a run, having completed a hat-trick at Wexford last time under fairly bizarre circumstances. He was narrowly beaten by a winner who failed to weigh in and was awarded the race after the event! Prior to that episode, he had won pretty convincing on two occasions and despite being given that last win, his mark is unaltered today, which makes him look a decent proposition at 9/4 BOG.
All three wins have been on right handed courses, where he is 3/5 and in races of 10 or fewer runners, where he is also 3 from 5. Jockey Seamie Heffernan keeps the ride today, having won two of the three races he’s ridden Coolfighter. The only question mark is the drop in trip, he gets much further than this untried 1m2f, having previously won at 1m 3.5f up to 1m 6f and I’d expect he might just take them on from the front here and try to tough it out.
If the trip does prove too sharp, then Moonmeister should be the one to take advantage at 9/4 BOG. He ran well in defeat at Galway three days, finishing second over 8.5f. He stayed on well and was going well at the close, which suggests that today’s extra furlong and a half should suit him better. He was beaten by a couple of lengths on Monday, conceding a fair bit of weight (rated 13lbs higher than the winner), but he’s bottom weight here and gets 12lbs from Coolfighter.
He has won two and finished second once n his four outings since a switch to Gordon Elliott’s yard, which is in fine form at the moment. They’ve had nine runners so far this week and they’ve finished 121412311 and three of his their last four runners here at Clonmel have been winners. Pat Smullen was on board for that runner-up finish at Galway on Monday, having won on the other occasion he’d ridden this horse and Pat himself is no slouch with a consistent 20%+ strike rate over the last year.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Debit / Moonmeister @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Boylesports)
Debit / Coolfighter @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : generally)
Panther Patrol / Moonmeister @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Panther Patrol / Coolfighter @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : BetVictor & SkyBet)