Stat of the Day, 13th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2014

If anything, Tamasha was even more impressive than Blue Waltz was on Thursday. She ran a little green at times and took a while to settle, but she got the 1m2f easily on debut and fairly blitzed the opposition on the home straight.

I’d advised an E/W bet at 13/2 BOG, which I felt not only offered value, but the security net of a placed finish. She attracted money all day and was eventually sent off as the 11/4 joint favourite and although we went E/W on her, our 3.9pts profit was still more than 40% better than backing her to win at ISP.

As it was, she romped home by a good six lengths with the one I feared most, Brisk a further couple of lengths back.

A couple of days makes a lot of difference and I now look to close out the week by completing a hat-trick in Saturday’s…

4.50 Lingfield:

Which is a 1m4f, Class 5 handicap on the polytrack. It’s an open age (3yo+) race for fillies only and I’m backing Sir Mark Prescott’s 3 yr old handicap debutante, Lady Bingo, at 5/1 BOG.

Sir Mark’s horses are going well at the moment with five winners from fifteen in the last fortnight and he’ll be hoping that Lady Bingo can improve upon the following set of stats…

1. The yard’s excellent record here at Lingfield…

Since 2008, Sir Mark’s record with horses priced between Evens and 8/1 in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield currently stands at 20 winners from 80 (25% SR) with level stakes profits of 16.6pts equating to 20.7% of stakes invested.

In the last two years, the figures are seven winners from twenty-five (28% SR) for 6.62pts (+26.5% ROI) profit.

2. Lady Bingo steps up in trip from 9.5f to 12f today…

Since 2008, the yard’s handicappers who stepped up in trip by two furlongs or more have won 60 of their 257 races at the longer trip. This 23.4% strike rate has yielded 36.6pts to date at an ROI of 14.2%. This might seem a lower return that we’re used to here at SotD, but it’s a useful starting point.

3. Lady Bingo is a three year old…

And the Prescott 3yr olds who stepped up in trip over that same period won 53 of 202 (26.2% SR) races for 57pts (+28.2% ROI) profit, a much more palatable figure and from this 53/202 record, we can derive the following facts:

Those sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 price bracket : 31/100 (31% SR) for 109.1pts (+109.1% ROI)
Those making their handicap debut: 19/77 (24.7% SR) for 39pts (+50.6% ROI)
and those on hcp debut at 5/2 to 8/1 : 15/40 (37.5% SR) for 65pts (+162.6% ROI) profit.

That 15/40 latest stat draws down to 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 34pts (+188.9% ROI) on the all-weather with a 3/5 for 21.4pts (+427.2% ROI) record here on Lingfield’s Polytrack.

4. Weight for age…

As a 3yr old in an open age handicap, Lady Bongo will carry 9lbs less than she would in a race for horses of just her own age, thanks to the weight for age allowance scheme. Sir Mark Prescott has a good record with his 3yr olds in this type of race, especially over the longer trips, where the allowances are greatest.

In fact since 2009, 44 of 104 3yr old runners in these open age handicaps have been winners and that 42.3% strike rate is not onlr very impressive, but has also produced excellent profits of 53.9pts (+51.8% ROI). 85 of those 104 runners were priced between evens and 8/1 with 34 of the 85 (40% SR) going on to win, netting punters 57.7pts at an ROI of 67.8%.

Here, on the artificial surface at Lingfield there has been 6 winners from 12 (50%) for profits of 13 pts (+108.3% ROI) with the highest priced runner being sent off at 7/1. Those priced between 5/2 and 7/1 are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 14.2pts (+203.5% ROI) profit.

Lady Bingo comes here after three unplaced efforts in maidens over a mile twice and 9.5f last time out. The trip looked inadequate on all occasions and the feeling is that she’ll be much more at home over this longer distance. The fact that she was an expensive purchase suggests better things are expected from her and her breeding (by Galileo) would tend to make you think this is a better trip.

I think she is leniently treated after three indifferent shows in maidens and the step up in trip and running in handicap company should give a truer reflection of her real self.  The stats and the breeding combined are enough for me to stake my last 1pt bet of the week on Lady Bingo at 5/1 BOG with Hills. 9/2 seems to be the best of the rest, as can be seen, if you just…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Lingfield

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Here is today’s racecard.