Stat of the Day, 15th September 2014
Lady Bingo ran pretty well on her big step up in trip and was only headed close to the two pole. She didn’t have the finishing speed of the two horses to pass her and was a little one-paced on the run in.
She did, however, stick to the task in hand and stayed on to take third place and this represents her best run to date and there’s likely to be more to come from her.
Today represents the mid-point of the month, so I’m going to try and close out a very profitable first half with one in today’s…
Where on a difficult day for finding relevant stats, I’ve sided with the 3yr old Right of Appeal at 5/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook.
Right of Appeal is trained by Mark Johnston…
Whose record here at Musselburgh since 2008 is decent enough to attract attention with 57 winners from 298 runners at a strike rate of 19.1%, which in turn has generated level stakes profits of 55.4pts (+18.6% ROI).
Mark’s three year olds have won 35 of 164 (21.3% SR) in that same time-frame and the corresponding 32.2pts profits are worth almost 20p in the pound to investors.
He’s running in an open age handicap…
Which, of course, means he gets a hefty 9lbs allowance under the weight for age scheme. I’ve mentioned this a few times of late, as its something that crops up quite a bit at this stage of the season, but no other trainer seems to get it as right as Mark Johnston does, especially over the longer trips, where the allowances are greater.
Since 2008, in these open age handicaps over trips of 12 to 16 furlongs, his 3 yr olds have won 69 of 296 attempts (+23.3% SR) with profits accrued of 55.4pts, or 18.6% ROI. Despite this being fairly common knowledge, his runners don’t seem to be overbet, as an odds restriction of 2/1 to 8/1 is still very profitable.
In that smaller odds window, Mark had 36 winners from 148 (24.3% SR) for 69.6pts (+47% ROI), so following the money isn’t a bad call here.
Our horse was sired by Dubawi…
Whose offspring are generally profitable to follow. His progeny have a combined 2958 runs between them since Curtains was 3rd at Brighton in late April 2009 and the 493 winners gives a healthy strike rate of 16.7% to date with level stakes profits of 533.7pts providing an ROI of 18.1%.
Those figures are excellent over such a large sample size, but we can narrow down to good effect (of course! 😀 )
3 yr olds have a record of 230/1221 (18.8% SR) for 538.7pts (+44.1% ROI),
whilst those competing at 1m4f to 2 miles inclusive have won 102 of 464 (22% SR) races with a 56.2% ROI derived from the returned profits of 260.8pts.
Which brings us to Dubawi 3 yr olds running between 1m4f and 2m, where 41 of 169 (24.3% SR) were victorious, producing 188.6pts profits at an ROI of 111.6%.
Right of Appeal lost his way over the late summer after some good runs earlier in the year, but showed plenty of signs of a return to form over this trip last time out. He attempted to make all but was rather swamped late on, losing 4 places inside the final furlong for a 3-length defeat. The winner of that race stepped up in class and won again next time out and our runner gets to runs off the same mark again today.
In a race littered with claiming jockeys attempting to reduce the weight burden, the 9lb allowance we’re getting means that experienced pro Franny Norton can take the ride and his know-how could make all the difference here today.
If he’s allowed to dominate and dictate the pace, I feel he could be a tough nut to crack this time around and I’m happy to be backing Right of Appeal at 5/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook. Other bookies are, of course, available and those already “open” here are generally offering 4/1 to 9/2, as can be seen when you…
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