Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Right of Appeal was, at 6/4, a fairly well-beaten (9 lengths) third of just four runners in a race decimated by non-runners, as five horses ducked this one.

Whether the presence of the missing runners would have affected the way the race unfolded isn’t clear and probably isn’t worth speculating upon either, so we’ll move swiftly on towards Tuesday’s selection which runs in the…

3.30 Yarmouth:

Where Ryan Moore rides James Tate’s 5/2 BOG, 2 yr old handicap debutante, Lady Moscou.

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James Tate has already begun to develop a knack for getting his handicappers to win at the first time of asking, despite him being relatively new to the training scene. This is particularly the case if there’s a bit of money around for his runners, as those sent off between 2/1 and 9/2 have gone on to win 8 of 26 races.

This 30.8% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 11.5pts at an ROI of 44.2%, with his 2 yr olds providing the bulk of the winners  and more than all of that profit. To date, his juveniles have won 5 of 11 handicap debuts (45.5% SR) and the 14.5pts profits from those runners is the equivalent of 132% of all stakes invested.

I’m also very happy to see the talented Ryan Moore in the saddle, because he is developing a bit of an understanding with the Tate runners and has, to date, won on seven occasions from just 17 rides: a strike rate of 41.2%.

In handicaps alone, Ryan is 6/8 (75%) on the Tate horses for level stakes profits of 5.7pts (+71.2% ROI) and that strike rate is mirrored here at Yarmouth, where the duo have a 3/4 record for 4.04pts (+101.1% ROI) profit.

Overall James Tate has had 5 winners from 12 Yarmouth handicaps this year with the 2.7pts profit equating to 22.6% of all stakes with a 5/5 record below 9/2. This 1005 record from the more fancied runners has yielded 9.7pts at an ROI of 194.2%.

Ryan Moore is actually 19/63 (30.2% SR) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons (11/32 this year) in all races at the track, whilst in handicap races only he is 12/42 (28.6% SR) in the last two years and 8/23 this season. And like James Tate, he is most profitable at the sharper end of the market, especially below 9/2. Below that price he is 12/27 (44.4% SR) here in the last couple of seasons for level stakes profits of 9.1pts (+33.5% ROI).

Lady Moscou comes here off the back of having won once from five starts with three narrow defeats as a runner-up (0.75L, 0.75L & 0.5L, all staying on). The only blot on her record so far is a 5th of 7 at Sandown two starts ago, but that was a Listed race to be fair and yet she was still only beaten by four lengths.

She has shaped like she needs further and her breeding would tend back up this assertion, so I’m expecting her to be more suited by this step up to a mile today. At 5/2 BOG, she’s at the sharper end of where we like to play at SotD, but there could well be some value left in that price and I feel she’d be a lot shorter, but for the presence of a 6/4 favourite, for whom I think this race might just have come too soon.

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Lady Moscou at 5/2 BOG. I’ve got on with SkyBet, using last week’s free bet token, but at least two other firms are matching this price, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Yarmouth

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Here is today’s racecard.

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