Stat of the Day, 17th September 2014
Lady Moscou ran a nice enough race, did nothing wrong and looked better than her eventual 7/2 SP would suggest. The problem was that the 5/4 favourite Rotherwick was just too good/quick for her late on.
I took the favourite on, because I felt he might struggle to win twice inside four days. having watched the race, he could well win again before the week is out! Sometimes you just run into one you’re not beating and this was one of those occasions. Lady Moscou comfortably beat the rest home, so we out this one down to experience, dust ourselves down and go again.
We’re staying in East Anglia for another crack at a seaside winner, this time it’s the…
And a race where Ted Durcan rode a Chris Wall horse to victory in this Class 4 handicap over 6 furlongs and they attempt to repeat the feat with the unexposed handicap debutante Eleusis.
Today will be just her fourth start of a nicely progressive career so far: she was third here over course and distance on debut back in April, before dropping down to 5 furlongs at Warwick 10 weeks later where she was beaten into second place by just three quarters of a length whilst staying on strongly.
Six weeks later she made her final start back over this course and distance where she absolutely strung out a 5-runner field to win by six lengths. Whaleweigh Station was second that day and he himself has been a winner by nine lengths since. The rest of the field here at Yarmouth on Eleusis‘ last run were 20L, 27L and 33L behind her.
Her trainer Chris Wall has a good record at the track and since 2008 has had 45 winners from 204 with a strike rate of 22.1% and level stakes profits of 82.8pts (+40.6% ROI). The bulk of the success has come with runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 (ie ideal SotD territory! 😀 ) with a record reading 34/111 (30.6% SR) for 107.2pts (+96.5% ROI) with E/W backers getting a near 58% strike rate (63/109) and 141 pts profit at an ROI of 64.7%.
In handicaps here at Yarmouth in the same time period, Chris’ runners have won 34/130 (26.2% SR) for 71.3pts (+54.8% ROI) with the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket once again proving very fruitful. Those horse in that price zone have won 26 of 86 (30.2% SR) for 78.9pts (+91.8% ROI) with E/W backers seeing a return from 49 of 85 bets (57.7% SR) for profits of 109.5pts, or 64.4% of stakes.
Incidentally, in the last four years, Ted Durcan is 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 14.5pts (65.7% ROI) on Chris Wall’s handicapper here at Yarmouth in that 2/1 to 10/1 price range, including last year’s winner, Rocksilla at 9/2.
Today is Eleusis’ handicap debut…
Chris Wall’s horses have won 20 of 122 handicap debuts since 2008, a strike rate of 17.9% that has yielded 98.7pts (+88.1% ROI) profit to date with three year olds winning 15 of 91 (16.5% SR) for 78.9pts (+86.7% ROI).
Of the original 112 handicap debutants, those priced between 7/2 & 16/1 have won 19 of 82 starts (23.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 125pts or 152.4% ROI> E/W backers have also profited from these runners with a 41.5% strike rate via 34 placers from 82 with the 145.5pts profit representing 88.7% of all stakes invested.
Former C&D winners run well back here at Yarmouth…
…especially those who were winners (anywhere!) last time out. In handicap races here at Yarmouth since 2010, horses returning tot his track who won last time out and run with a CD next to their name on our excellent interactive racecards (quick plug! 😀 ) have gone on to win 31 of 98 return visits. This 31.6% strike rate has generated 34.8pts profit at an ROI of 25.5% and all the 31 winners were priced at 10/1 or shorter.
The record at 10/1 or shorter is 31/87 (35.6% SR) for 45.8pts (+52.7% ROI) profit with Chris Wall tasting success with 4 of just 8 runners: a 50% strike rate and a 93.7% ROI via 7.5pts profit.
I fancy Eleusis to put on a big run here, but at 15/2 BOG, the prudent call is a safety-first approach. So today, I’m backing Eleusis as follows: 0.5pts E/W at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor. Coral also offer 15/2 whilst the rest vary from 6/1 to 7/1, as you can see if you just…
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