Stat of the Day, 19th September 2014
Despite still being well ahead of the game for the month, September has proven to be quite frustrating so far and yesterday’s 4th place finish for an E/W selection pretty much summed up the way things have gone of late.
But amongst all this, my methods won’t change. We’re almost three years into a successful project and my MO is very simple each and every day: find a horse that has the best statistical fit and is backable at a reasonable price that offers some value. I like to operate in the 5/2 to 6/1 area, but will stray occasionally for an E/W bet at larger odds, if deemed fit.
I thought that Ishiamber should have been an 11/2 to 6/1 chance on Thursday, but when I found I could get 9/1, I went E/W to maximise the chances of a payout. I stress that I wasn’t chasing a big winner. Had that been my intention, I would surely have gone win only. After all, when she trailed in 4th at 8/1, the outcome would have been the same.
Bruised but undeterred by my recent cold spell, I dust myself down and go ahead in Friday’s…
A Class 4 handicap hurdle for seven runners on good ground over a trip of 2m 6f, where Kieron Edgar will claim 5lbs aboard David Pipe’s 8 yr old Hawkhill who takes a drop in class ( 3 to 4) for this contest.
David Pipe has been amongst the winners of late, as 10 of his 37 runners (27% SR) have been successful over the last two months. His last entries all ran here at Newton Abbot 11 days ago, where his trio of runners came home with two golds and a silver on a very satisfying afternoon for the yard. He’s had no runners since then, but is no doubt relishing a return to the scene of his last victories.
Hawkhill hasn’t won for 6 races and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that win…
Since 2009, David Pipe’s UK NH horses without a win in 5 (or more!) races who then ran off a mark lower than their last winning effort have won 11 of 57 (19.3% SR) races, when sent off in the 5/2 to 7/1 price range. The subsequent 20.4pts profit represents a return of stakes of 35.8%.
Those competing over hurdles under the same conditions as above have won 9 of 34 races (26.5% SR) for 30.7pts (+90.4% ROI) profit.
Not only is he 8lbs below that winning mark, his jockey claims another 5lbs…
Since 2008, David Pipe has employed the services of a 5lb claimer in 131 handicap contests and the 23 winners gives a healthy strike rate of 17.6% alongside level stakes profits of 122.6pts or 93.6% of all stakes invested. In hurdles races alone, those figures improve to 16 wins from 85 (18.8% SR) for 95.2pts (+112% ROI).
And it is in the middle class races (ie classes 3 & 4) where the optimum results can be found with 12 winners from 50 (24%) producing 88.3pts (+176.6% ROI) profit.
Hawkhill drops down two levels to compete here…
David Pipe’s horses who have been dropped 1 or 2 levels in class over the last couple of years have a 26/107 record in handicaps when priced in the 2/1 to 7/1 odds range ie our “usual” area of operation for SotD. This 24.3% strike rate has, so far, produced 39.1pts profit at an ROI of 36.5%, with those horses dropping two classes (like Hawkhill) winning 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) races for 7.5pts (+50% ROI) profit.
Despite not being in the best of form, Hawkhill now faces a return to the track where he has previously won, dropping two grades to a level where his record reads 11121 and running off a mark 8lbs lower than his last winning effort with the added bonus of a 5lb claimer on his back. If all of that can’t combine to make him competitive, I’m not sure what would!
After all this is a horse who has won a Listed race and was plying his trade at Listed level this time last year and also as recently as two months and three starts ago.
This is quite possibly his easiest assignment since that last win and I think he has a very good chance here. So based on the above, I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Hawkhill at 9/2 BOG with Coral, who stand alone at that price, whilst the other firms with a market open for this race vary from 3/1 through 7/2 to 4/1.
Obviously you want to get the best price you can and if that 9/2 has gone by the time you read this, then you should…
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