Stat of the Day, 20th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2014

A great run from Hawkhill yesterday put us back in profit for the week and ensured another profitable month for SotD in what are difficult times.

He led from the off and controlled the race from the front, never seeing another rival on his way to a comfortable 7 lengths victory, easing down on the run in.

He was returned at 11/4, but we got paid put at 164% of SP, thanks to an early 9/2 BOG price. We now move on to Saturday, where I’m quietly confident about the…

8.20 Wolverhampton:

Where there are a number of reasons why I’ve just backed Saeed bin Suroor’s Night Party at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor for this 9.5f, Class 3 handicap on the all-weather.

Initially, I’m drawn to the trainer’s record here…

Since 2009, Saeed bin Suroor’s horses have won 38 times here at Wolverhampton from just 104 runners. This 36.5% strike rate has so far yielded moderate profits of 16.4pts at an ROI of 15.8%. We do prefer a higher return for SotD, but 16% is a good figure for blind backing and is an excellent starting point for some of my “digging”.

From the 38/104 basic stat…

11/34 (32.4% SR) in handicap contests for 16.5pts (+48.5% ROI) profits.
Those in the 6/4 to 6/1 odds range are 21/53 (39.6% SR) for 22.2pts (+41.8% ROI).
And those in handicaps in that price range are 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 10.9pts (+68% ROI)

After three runs on turf, it’s a first A/W start for Night Party…

Since 2009, the yard has switched 136 runners from the turf to the A/W for a horse’s first crack at an artificial surface. 61 of these 136 have won at the first attempt and this 44.9% strike rate has generated 97pts profit at an ROI of 71.3%. Here at Wolverhampton,those numbers read 18 winners from 33 (54.6% SR) for 14.1pts (+42.7% ROI). An increased strike rate but a lower ROI suggests the runners attract market support here at Wolverhampton.

Also from the 61/136 stats for “switchers”, a trip of 8 to 10 furlongs seems the optimum distance with a record of 30 wins from 59 (50.9% SR) for 61.8pts (+104.8% ROI) profit, whilst the best results also come from horses in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range with a 48/103 (46.6% SR) for 108.6pts (+105.4% ROI) profit. Class 3 runners are 10/19 (52.6% SR) for 22pts (+116% ROI).

You can, of course, mix and match those stats to match today’s conditions, but the sample sizes become quite small.

Night Party makes her handicap debut today..

This too can be seen as a positive sign, as the yard’s handicap debutants are 55/231 since 2008 with the 23.8% strike rate yielding 34.8pts at an ROI of 15.1%. And if we weed out the shorties and the longshots, we see a record of 49/176 (27.8% SR) for those running at odds of 6/4 up to 12/1 with the resultant 77.4pts profit equating to 44% of all stakes invested.

She’s also stepping up in trip (by a furlong)…

The yard’s handicap debutants who are stepping up in trip from their last run also have a very good record of 28 wins from 89 runs, a 31.5% strike rate producing 49.3pts profit at an ROI of 55.4% and from this we can see…

Those stepping up 1 furlong are 16/34 (47.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+134.4% ROI)
Those running at Class 3 level are 6/20 (30% SR) for 24.3pts (+121.5% ROI) and…
those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 6/1 inclusive have won 20 of 46 races  (43.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 38.4pts (+83.5% ROI).

The optimum type of of handicap debutant from this yard runs at Class 3 or 4, steps up by 0.5 to 2.5 furlongs and runs between 6/4 and 6/1, a bit like Night Party does today! 😀 Such horses have won 14 of 30 races (46.7% SR) for 28.5pts profit (+95.1% ROI).

It’s a small sample size, of course, but let’s just indulge ourselves a little by making a point that those at Class 3 stepping up one furlong are 2/3 at those odds for 9.2pts profit.

For her part, Night Party has had a promising, but short three race career in turf maidens. She was second and then fourth ( but getting closer to the winner!) in two 7f maidens at Newmarket last August as a 2 yr old, before taking an 8 month break. She then reappeared at Beverley five months ago, upped in trip to 8.5 furlongs where she ran on well to win by a couple of lengths.

She shaped as though a further step up in trip would be the plan and although she hasn’t been done any favours by the assessor with her opening mark, the yard is in great form with a 13/33 record in the last two weeks and jockey Matthew Lawson will take a very valuable three pounds off the mark of 90. Matthew doesn’t get a lot of rides, but did ride a winner on one of his two rides last time out (Bath last Saturday) and he’s 2/7 on the bin Suroor horses.

Plenty of angles to consider, but if Night Party is as well prepared as I expect her to be, she could make her current odds look quite high come race time, which is why I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Night Party at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor. You can follow suit or you can…

…click here for the latest betting on the 8.20 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.