Double Dutch, 22nd September 2014
Saturday was a day of contrasts, I selected two vastly different races, one a Listed contest, the other an average looking Class 6 handicap. I got two very different results too!
We got the 1-2 in the Listed race, with the horses finishing in the order I expected and with a drift out to 9/4 for the winner, a nice double looked on the cards.
Unfortunately, our second pick was withdrawn from the later race and our main selection could only finish fourth of 8 runners, beaten by two lengths having led inside the final furlong.
Our 9/4 winner in race 1 meant we did at least get a 1.63pt return from a winning bet coupled with a non-runner, which reduced the daily loss to a mere 0.38pts and those playing the exotics bets were rewarded with a 17/2 forecast.
It was, as we say, one of those losing winning days!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Sky Hunter: won at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Sennockian Star: 2nd at 10/3 (adv 3/1)
The forecast paid 17/2 here
Running Reef: u/p at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Showtime Star: non-runner (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
354 winning selections from 1245 = 28.43%
117 winning bets in 324 days = 36.11%
P/L : +67.81pts (+10.44% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Not much quantity or quality to Monday’s racing, but here goes…
Charming Thought is a son of Oasis Dream, the triple Group 1 winner and cost £625,000 as a yearling. He also held an entry (unfulfilled) for last weekend’s Group 2 Mill reef Stakes, so plenty is expected of this one. He only made his debut just over five weeks ago, when touched off by Flash Fire (who then went on to narrowly fail to land a Class 2 contest, before winning again at this C4 level). From there, Charming Thought ran at Lingfield 18 days later and scored a comfortable two length victory.
He beat the third placed horse by 4.5 lengths that day and that horse has since run again, finished third again, but only beaten by 1.5 lengths stepping up in class, so any natural progression her should be enough for Charming Thought to win at 6/4 BOG***. His yard go well here, as does his jockey, which are also positive signs.
Fox Trotter was sent off as the favourite for a valuable seller at the St Leger meeting, but was unruly before the race and then blew the start and any chance of winning. A hood is applied today in a bid to calm him down, so he can show why he was so well fancied that day and also to pick up on two prior promising runs.
He ran on well to win by almost three lengths on debut (also at Doncaster, suggesting it was the big meeting occasion rather than the track that upset him LTO?), before acquitting himself in the group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood at the end of July. He finished fourth that day, but was only a neck and a short head shy of being the runner-up in a race dominated by the 2/5 fav Ivawood, who won by 4.5 lengths.
He was just a short head behind Jungle Cat that day and the latter then went on to come within a nose of landing the group 2 Gimcrack at York when caught on the line, so everything points to a big run from Fox Trotter at 9/4 BOG, if he can overcome his Doncaster issues.
***Note: Prices lower than I’d normally go for, but a non-runner occurred as I was typing up race 2!***
Smart Daisy K is a consistent performer indeed, only failing to make the frame twice in her 13 starts to date, winning three times along the way. Her most recent success was on her last outing at Bath, nine days ago, when she won one of my two Double Dutch races which helped to foil us that day! This is a tougher assignment than that contest, but she’s in sparkling form and doesn’t yet seem overcooked for the season, having only ran three times, unlike many of her rivals here.
A 4lb rise isn’t probably too harsh for that win and the way she has performed in general and once again, Jack Duern can take his 5lb claim to good effect. He has ridden her twice (3rd then a winner) and all of her three wins have been over this minimum trip and she’ll like the faster ground here too, having already won on Good to Firm at Haydock and on Firm last time out. Smart Daisy K looks a decent proposition at 9/2 BOG here today.
The big danger is the 11/4 BOG-priced Milly’s Gift who should be refreshed after an 8-week break and drops back down to Class 3 level, having previously acquitted gher self very well in a big field C2 handicap at Ascot when only beaten by a head behind Discussiontofollow.
On paper, Milly’s Gift is the best horse in the race and as such has to concede weight all round. She is, however reunited with jockey Ryan Tate, who not only takes 3lbs off today, but also rides her very well (1512 to date). They’ll be a formidable partnership again today and if things go to plan, then Milly’s Gift is my marginal preference.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Charming Thought / Milly’s Gift @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Charming Thought / Smart Daisy K @ 12.75/1 (6/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor)
Fox Trotter / Milly’s Gift @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Boylesports)
Fox Trotter / Smart Daisy K @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Stan James)