Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2014
We backed Night Party at 11/2 on Saturday and I was pretty happy to get that price to be honest. The market, however, disagreed with me and the horse was eventually sent off at double (yes, double!) my advised odds at an SP of 11/1.
Which meant a juicy payday, if it won. Unfortunately the market was spot on and a 7 lengths defeat back in 6th place of 10 runners was the final outcome. He stayed on well enough, but never threatened to make any sort of impact, I’m afraid.
We do back the odd clunker now and then and this was probably one of them.
Monday looks tough from a stats point of view and poor from a racing quality point of view, but what’s new there? We do, however, offer a 6 days-a-week service, and so we do have one for you and it runs in the…
Where I’ve just taken 5/1 BOG from Coral for Ralph Beckett’s
3 yr old filly Perfect Alchemy.
Regular readers of this piece will know that Mr. Beckett is on my notional shortlist of go-to trainers under certain conditions and much of this stems from the fact that if you backed every single runner he sent out, you’d make a profit and that has to be the most rudimentary of all betting systems, hasn’t it?
Since the start of 2007, Ralph Beckett has had 467 winners from his 2976 runners, so we are talking a serious sample size, but with a very healthy 15.7% strike rate. If you’d put a tenner on each of them, your outlay would be approaching the £30k level of investment, but your profits would currently stand at £7949.50, a superb return above stakes invested of 26.7%. What’s not to like about that?
I now (as always!) want to draw down from the headline stat to find us a selection for today. Well, Ralph has three runners today and they’re all running on the A/W at Kempton, so let’s see how he fares in this code and on this track.
Taken from the overall record of 467/2976 over almost 8 years (and no freak standout year!), the record on the All-Weather reads 161 winners from 802 runners, a 20.1% strike rate (better than the overall 15.7%) and level stakes profit of 317pts represent an ROI of 44% (way above the already excellent 26.7%). These figures augur well for any A/W action now and in the future, but what about Kempton specifically?
Well, at Kempton, the numbers are very similar to the A/W record overall, a 20.6% strike rate (82/398) generating an ROI of 45.2% via 169.6pts profit.
This would suggest that his three runners here have at least a fighting chance, but of the three, I like the look of Perfect Alchemy best.
She’s 2/2 over course and distance in her only two outings on the A/W and comes here on the back of a narrow win at Windsor where she not only coped with ground that was a touch on the soft side for her, but she also fended off the odds-on and pretty useful Mia San Triple in the process, a horse who was attempting to land a Windsor 6f course and distance hat trick.
She steps up in class today, though…
That’s not a real concern to be honest. Ralph Beckett does well enough with horses stepping up in class. If, as earlier, we go back to 2007 as a starting point, Ralph has had 100 winners from his 655 runners stepping up in class, a 15.3% strike rate not too dissimilar to his overall record, but the profits are better at 360.3pts, or 55% of stakes.
The record with those stepping up in class on the A/W is 29/120 ( 24.2% SR) for 100pts (+83.3% ROI) profit with Kempton supplying 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) for 27.4pts (+48.1% ROI).
James Doyle is in the saddle today…
And whilst he doesn’t ride the Beckett horses very often, he’s certainly no mug and he more than knows his way around Kempton.
Since 2008, on horses priced at 12/1 or shorter in Kempton A/W handicaps, James has ridden 41 winners from his 242 outings, a decent 16.94% strike rate that has, to date yielded some 57.1pts profit at an ROI of 23.6%.
So, we have plenty of statistical data to back up a horse clearly in form and I expect to be able to collect from a 1pt win on Perfect Alchemy at 5/1 BOG with Coral. 4/1 seems to be the norm elsewhere, so if you need to check the price…
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