Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2014

I was a little disappointed with the performance of Perfect Alchemy at Kempton on Monday, She never really looked like getting involved and when push came to shove and she was eventually asked for an effort, she seemed rather one paced.

The end result was that she finished 6th of and nearer the back than the front, eventually beaten by around 5.5 lengths. The only minor positive to be drawn was that our advised 5/1 BOG odds were a shade longer than the 9/2 SP, but they’re just crumbs of comfort.

No time/desire to dwell on that result, though, so let’s head straight off for our next one, in the…

6.50 Newcastle:

This is a Class 6 handicap for 3 yr olds and older to be run over 1m4.5f and I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on High Secret at 5/2 BOG with Bet365.

He’s trained by Sir Mark Prescott…

…who is in cracking form at present, having saddled up nine winners from 31 runners (29% SR) in the last 30 days alone, generating 19.8pts profit at an ROI of 63.9%. The bulk of this success comes in handicap races with 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 18.4pts (+83.5% ROI).

This comes as no surprise to me, because I already know that, despite him having plenty of runners, he is profitable to follow blindly in turf handicaps!

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In fact since the start of the 2008 season, 148 of his 539 (27.5% SR) handicap runners have been winners and between them have produced 66.9pts at an ROI of 12.4%, which is more than respectable off such a large number of bets. A simple filter is only back those at single digit odds (ie below 10/1!), where the record reads 146/467 (31.3% SR) for 97.9pts (+21% ROI).

At today’s Class 6 level, the sub-10/1 handicappers have won 43 of 110 (39.1% SR) races with level stakes profits of 57.7pts equating to some 52.4% above all investment.

High Secret drops down from Class 5 today...

Since 2008, 158 of Sir Mark’s handicappers have been dropped one grade, making them more competitive. 57 of the 158 (36.1% SR) have been winners, which is a huge strike rate and has almost doubled punters’ stakes for them with profits of 156.4pts (+99% ROI).

On the Flat those figures improve even higher to 33 winners from 80 (41.3% SR) for excellent profits of 106.1pts or 132.6% ROI.

He’s just 3 yrs old competing against mainly older horses…

…which, of course, means he’ll get a healthy weight for age allowance, effectively reducing his mark by some 8lbs here today. Some trainers are more adept than others at playing this system and Sir Mark is one of the more astute ones around. Obviously the further he race, the higher the allowance and it’s after 1m2f that it really makes a difference in my opinion.

At trips of over 1m2f, since the start of 2009, Sir Mark has made a profit from his 3yr olds in these races every single year. 45 winners from 107 gives a 42.1% strike rate, whilst the resultant 54.4pts profit is worth almost 51p on top of every pound wagered. Once again, the Flat runners outperform the A/W counterparts and on the Flat, the record reads 29 winners from 67 (+43.3% SR) for 39.5pts (+58.9% ROI) profit.

These are steady consistent profits every season, no freak year or big winner to skew the numbers. Every season has been profitable and the biggest winner was 8/1.

High Secret makes a fairly large (4f) step up in trip for his handicap debut…

Sir Mark likes to move his unexposed handicappers up in trip by quite a distance, more than possibly to steal a bit of a march on the assessor, but I’m guessing, of course! Regardless of why he does it, he just does it and it works for him, so you can assume, he’ll carry on doing it.

The facts are that since 2008, handicappers with less than 5 handicap outings to their name have been stepped up in trip on 337 occasions. 89 (26.4% SR) of these 337 have won and have recorded modest profits of 61.5pts at an ROI of 18.3%.

But, more interestingly (to me, at least!), those stepping up a considerable amount ie 3 to 6 furlongs, have won 27 of 96 (28.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 57.9pts and a much more palatable ROI of some 60.3%. This 27/96 stats is still based on those runners with less than five handicap outings, but if we focus on those (like High Secret today) who were making their handicap debut, we still see a good rate of success, thanks to 14 winners from 52 (26.9% SR) generating profits of 31.5pts (+60.5% ROI).

Those above on handicap debut and priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 corridor have gone on to win 13 of 35 races (37.1% SR) for fantastic level stakes profits of 45.6pts (+130.2% ROI).

That’s a whole stack of stats to support my selection today, but there’s not a great deal to tell about the horse himself. Largely unimpressive in three maidens last year, but at trips far shorter than today and on very different surfaces. He raced twice over 7f (soft & standard A/W) before another run on soft ground over 8.5f.

Those three runs got him a mark of 52, which is very modest, especially when you factor in the 8lb allowance today and also the eyecatching booking of Luke Morris to ride him. I’m not convinced the team aren’t trying to throw one in here and I have enough facts at my disposal as well as a bit of a feeling that today is this horse’s day.

He’s also by High Chaparrel, whose offspring are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 64.4pts profit (+268.3% ROI) over today’s trip. High Secret is at the lower end of the price range I normally operate at, but I’m confident of drawing a return from my 5/2 BOG bet with Bet365. Not all the bookies had opened up on this one at 10.45pm, so I strongly advise you to…

…click here for the latest betting on the 6.50 Newcastle

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Here is today’s racecard.

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