Double Dutch, 23rd September 2014
Another couple of winners yesterday and thankfully the non-runner in race 1 had already been accounted for before we went live, so no further reductions in price.
As expected, Charming Thought took that opener, having been quite heavily backed in from our 6/4 to an eventual SP of 10/11 and the official margin of a half length probably doesn’t tell the whole story as the runner-up was pretty well held off.
Then, an hour later Milly’s Gift had to dig deep to see off Taajub, who finished strongly after being hampered and losing ground at the start, which isn’t ideal in a 5f sprint! But hang on she did and the 11/4 BOG we’d taken meant a nice 8.38/1 double on the day.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Charming Thought: won at 10/11 (adv 6/4)
Fox Trotter: u/p at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Milly’s Gift: won at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Smart Daisy K: u/p at 11/4 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
356 winning selections from 1249 = 28.50%
118 winning bets in 325 days = 36.31%
P/L : +70.50pts (+10.82% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are where we’re going on Tuesday…
Kingsgate Native might be on a fairly long losing run at present, but this is a major drop in class for a horse that two runner-up finishes in Group 3 races this season. He wouldn’t need to run to anything like his best to take this one and has already raced all against all today’s opponents in the past and none have ever finished ahead of him. To be running at Class 3 level in the same season that he got to within half a length of Sole Power is quite strange and as such, he should be far too good today at 7/4 BOG.
Green Door is the one most likely to give him a run for his money, though. He was winning a Group 2 sprint this time last year and although this season hasn’t exactly gone to plan, he has shown signs of a return to form of late, finishing second in his each of his last three starts here in the UK, all at this level, so he should know what’s in store today. You can currently get 11/4 BOG for this one.
A pretty weak looking maiden to be honest, with many of these either overexposed, out of form or just not very good and it wouldn’t take a particularly special effort to land this contest. The pick of the bunch on past form has to be the current 9/4 BOG favourite Painted Lady, who has at least been placed in five of her six runs this year and many of them in far better races than this one.
Painted Lady’s best form has come over today’s 2m4f trip and a repeat of any of her recent runs over this trip will surely be enough here today.
The “best” of the rest, I suppose, looks like being Tikka Light who ran well when finishing second to the useful-looking Padraigs Joy at Cork last time out (23 days ago). Although she was no match for the winner, who is surely destined for better than this level, she plugged on well and stuck to her task finishing clear of a large and wel strung-out field behind her. To be honest, I’d expect her to finish second again here today, but stranger things have happened, so she’s my backup plan at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Kingsgate Native / Painted Lady @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Kingsgate Native / Tikka Light @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Green Door / Painted Lady @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Green Door / Tikka Light @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Boylesports, PP, Hills & Betfair)