Stat of the Day, 24th September 2014
High Secret overcame an absence of 321 days to score relatively comfortably in the last race at Newcastle on Tuesday evening, dropping down in class and stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut.
Those who read the stats I listed will have seen him to fit Sir Mark Prescott’s tried and trusted MO to a tee. The only negative about the whole selection and subsequent victory was that I missed the 7/2 on offer whilst typing and then many of you didn’t even get the 5/2 that I took.
My own 5/2 was subject to a 10p Rule 4 and was settled at 9/4, a price that was actually on offer in several places during the course of the afternoon. As it was, he opened up on course at 6/4, won at 13/8 and stayed on well to finish a length and a half ahead of a plucky 25/1 outsider with the generally consistent Wor Lass a further 3.5 lengths back in third.
All in all, a good result and one I aim to replicate in Wednesday’s…
Where Andretti looks overpriced at 11/2 BOG with Paddy Power.
At a track, where his yard have performed well of late…
Winning 14 of 74 races over the last couple years with a strike rate of 18.9% producing 15pts profit at an ROI of 20.3%
Both his trainer and his jockey come here in decent form…
Boasting similar 21-ish% strike rates over the last fortnight. Trainer Roger Varian is 7/32 (21.9% SR) in this period, whilst jockey Andrea Atzeni has ridden 12 winners from 56 in the same time frame.
The trainer/jockey partnership is a successful one…
…especially in SotD territory. Following on from yesterday’s debate about prices and also reiterating that I don’t like putting up selections below 5/2, it is worth noting that Andrea Atzeni has ridden 297 Roger Varian horses priced at 5/2 or bigger to date. 51 of the 297 have gone on to win and the 17.2% strike rate has yielded a tidy profit of 95.4pts at an ROI of 32.1%.
Andretti drops down a grade to Class 6 today…
Roger’s horses who have been dropped in class have won 72 of 265 (27.2% SR) starts and have generated 92.5pts (+34.9% ROI) profits from those winners. Those (like Andretti today) dropping down just one class have a record reading 56/207 (27.1% SR) which is in line with the general expectations, but the 46.5% ROI is a good bit higher thanks to the increased profits of 96.2pts from a smaller number of runners.
Those dropping down from Class 5 to Class 6, as our selection does, are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 18.8pts (+67% ROI).
He might be down in class, but he’s up in trip today…
The Varian-trained horses tend to go well stepping up in trip as a record of 96 wins from 442 races would suggest with that 21.7% strike rate bringing in 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 15.1%. Of those 442 runners, the record in handicap contests is 46/224 (20.5% SR) for 34.7pts (+15.5% ROI) profit.
This is also his handicap/nursery bow…
Referring back to the 46/224 record immediately above, those horses who were on handicap/nursery debut won 21 of 92 races at a 22.8% strike rate which in turn has generated 34.1pts profit at an ROI of 37.1%
And none of the above should be a surprise, really…
…as Roger Varian has been profitable to follow blindly in handicap races since he started training. 19% of all his handicappers (114/600) have been winners and a decent 12/5% ROI has been achieved from backing them, via 75pts of profit. He is extremely profitable to follow in the 3/1 to 14/1 odds range, with 69 winners from 388 runners (17.8% SR) producing level stakes profits of 120.7pts at an ROI of 31.1%.
His handicap debutants at the same odds parameters are 18/97 (18.6% SR) for 46.4pts (+47.8% ROI)
Andretti has only ever raced three times prior to today and actually showed very little on two starts for Sir Michael Stoute, but looks to have benefited for a the move when only beaten by just over four lengths here at Kempton last time out. That was his first crack at all-weather racing and he seemed happy enough with the surface. The drop in class suggests an easier time of it today and he looks quite well treated off an opening mark that just allows him to squeeze into a 0-65 contest.
He was finishing well last time out, which suggests the move back up to 7f here should suit him better and with the way his new operates, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he took this one at a nice price.
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