Double Dutch, 24th September 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th September 2014

Yesterday started well enough with a correct order 1-2 bringing us the added bonus of a small 5.7/1 forecast as Kingsgate Native bounced back to form and got the upper hand in what was a messy race. It was possibly his last outing and if so, I’m glad he was able to sign off with a win. Second choice Green Door was the best part of two lengths back and just got the verdict in a three-way photo for the runner-up slot.

All of which meant, the double was still alive heading to Ballinrobe, but Painted Lady failed to break her duck, as she once again was a runner-up, meaning she has now made the frame in six of her seven races this year without winning! In fairness, she was well beaten and came home 8.5 lengths behind the eventual winner with our other runner a further 11 lengths and 2 places back.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Kingsgate Native: won at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Green Door: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £6.69 here
Painted Lady: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Tikka Light: u/p at 4/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
357 winning selections from 1253 = 28.49%
118 winning bets in 326 days = 36.20%

Stakes: 653.50pts
Returns: 722.00pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +68.50pts (+10.48% ROI)


Hoping for a quick bounce back on Wednesday in the…

4.10 Perth:

After 8 starts without making the frame (1 bumper and 7 hurdles), Robins Command has been revitalised this year over fences since being paired up with talented rising star jockey Craig Nichol (he’s one to watch!). Tigether in 7 starts this year, they have never finished outside the first two home, winning four times in a run reading 2112112 (two more wins to continue the sequence?), They are 112 over course and distance, having been narrowly defeated (neck) in their hat-trick bid last time out.

Conditions are ideal here for them today and they’ll fancy their chances at 11/4 BOG (BetVictor), but a 3lb rise in weights might just open the door for a rival, such as…

…the unexposed 5yr old Crown Theatre who makes his chasing (and handicap debut) after just three starts over hurdles, where he performed well, finishing 233. It’s interesting to see trainer Gordon Elliott wanting him to go chasing so soon that you feel there might be something in it. Also of note is a first leg-up on this horse for AP McCoy, which does suggest they mean business for a horse that shouldn’t be too fazed by fences, having two good third placed finishes in point to point races earlier in the year and he’s currently the bookies favourite at 5/2 BOG.


5.15 Perth:

After a very narrow defeat at Cheltenham almost 18 months ago, Velator looked like he could turn out to be a much better runner than a Class 3 chaser, but things never seemed to happen for him from then on. As much as I like Anthony Honeyball as a trainer (I really do think he’s excellent), sometimes there comes a point when it’s better to let a horse go.  In the four runs after that Cheltenham defeat, Velator finished P6PP, with the 6 being a 6th of 7, beaten by over 40 lengths.

So, on 11th August this year, Velator moved to Peter Bowen’s yard and Peter is renowned for his summer chasers and he sent Velator out just five days later and the horse ran a very creditable third at Market Rasen. He made a couple of mistakes and was eventually beaten by seven lengths. He then reappeared at Newton Abbot 23 days later (16 days ago) and looked to be coming back to what he’s capable of, as he won quite comfortably with a former Class 2 winner Wiesentraum a good 10 lengths adrift in second place.

Velator is fit and in form and has shown in the past that he can string a series of good results out and I fancy him to go in again today at 9/4 BOG.

This time of year generally sees the Twiston-Davies runners amongst the winners and they’ll fancy their chances with 11/4 BOG shot Hollow Blue Sky in this one, especially if the favourite’s inconsistencies resurface. He has a record of 1434132 over fences and hasn’t been any more than 4 lengths away from the winner in any of his five defeats, showing real consistency. He was a runner-up last time out and that was over today’s course and distance when he ran into Seebright, who subsequently won again next time out, as have the runners in third and fourth place that day.

If that form stands up and Hollow Blue Sky runs to his normal level of performance, he could push Velator all the way in what might become a bit of a slog late on.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Crown Theatre / Velator @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Crown Theatre / Hollow Blue Sky @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Bet365)
Robins Command / Velator @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Robins Command / Hollow Blue Sky @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)

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