Double Dutch, 25th September 2014
Mixed fortunes at Perth yesterday as results continue to be a bit of a mixed bag this week!
It all started well enough with a nice win from Robins Command at 11/4, taking his run of form this season to 21121121, as he kept on well to beat Final Assault by a couple of lengths. Our other runner in this race was a pretty disappointing last of the four to finish, a good 15 lengths off the pace, but should come on for this first crack at a handicap and a chase.
So, we had an hour to wait before learning whether we’d get a double up at around 13/1 or we’d be going home empty handed. Unfortunately, it was the latter as our two selections came home 3rd and 4th in a six-horse race. Both Hollow Blue Sky and Velator made several errors and eventually finished 11.5 lengths and 14 lengths off the pace respectively in a race won impressively by Gordon Elliott’s Raajih.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Robins Command: won at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Crown Theatre: u/p at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Hollow Blue Sky: u/p at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
Velator: u/p at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
358 winning selections from 1257 = 28.48%
118 winning bets in 327 days = 36.09%
P/L : +66.50pts (+10.14% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Evening action for Thursday, starting with the…
We failed yesterday with a Twiston-Davies horse here at Perth, but I’ll try again with Kilronan High here in what looks a decent bumper contest. Nigel has a 28% strike rate at this track, rising to 53% in bumpers (8/15) and in Kilronan High, he has a horse in good form. He finished 32221 in five 3-mile point to point races last year so stamina shouldn’t be an issue for him going forwards. He was pulled up when beaten on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Cheltenham back in April, before reappearing at Towcester.
At Towcester, he made all, won very easily and despite easing right down in the closing stages, still beat a 4/5 favourite by 7 lengths. There might be a slight concern that he hasn’t raced for 125 days, but three of his seven rivals are in a similar position, whilst another is on debut. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kilronan High controlled this from the front again and landed the spoils at 15/8 BOG.
Of the remainder, I’m going to tempt fate by suggesting that last time out winner Clonalig House has too much weight to carry and pass him over in favour of Bumper expert Stuart Crawford’s Irish raider Paddy’s Yarn. Stuart’s record in UK bumpers is quite amazing when you look at it; 24 winners from 73 (32.9% SR) in the last 5 years and 13/33 (39.4% SR) in the last two years.
Paddy’s Yarn makes just his second star today after an eyecatching finish to his debut run, where he was fifth of thirteen at Roscommon. It took a while for the penny to drop and he had plenty of ground to make up, but finished very strongly to pass quite a few runners to take fifth, beaten by only 3.25 lengths and a half length outside the places.
Stevie Crawford takes over in the saddle today, boasting a 24/100 record on the Crawford bumper horses and they could quite well upset the favourite here with a first win at 5/2 BOG.
Charlies Star is the highest rated of these runners here today and it’s easy to see why after three recent creditable runs in better quality races than this one today. She was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 race at Chester in May and has since been running at Class 4 level and performing well. She now drops back to a poor-looking Class 6 event, a standard where she is 1 from 1. She hasn’t quite ran to her mark in nurseries of late, but a drop to claimer level could be exactly what’s needed to get Charlies Star back to winning ways at 5/2 BOG.
Unfortunately, though, I think she’s going to have to play second fiddle to the progressive Paris Carver, who was second on her handicap bow 10 days ago. She was beaten by less than two lengths at Wolverhampton that day and already has experience of this track, finishing third here on her penultimate run. If she runs to the same level as her lat effort at Wolverhampton, she really should be landing this lower-quality race. The only downside to selecting her is that she’s only 13/8 BOG, but if she’s the second half of a winning double, I can live with that!
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Kilronan High / Paris Carver @ 6.55/1 (15/8 & 13/8 : generally)
Kilronan High / Charlies Star @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : generally)
Paddy’s Yarn / Paris Carver @ 8.19/1 (5/2 & 13/8 : Stan James)
Paddy’s Yarn / Charlies Star @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)