Stat of the Day, 25th September 2014
I thought Andrea Atzeni was brilliant aboard Andretti yesterday and his sheer hard work and sense of timing were as much to thank for the victory as anything else. He was at work from a long way out trying to get the horse to pick up the pace and he just about got the timing right.
It was very late in the piece when they hit the front and they just overhauled a 50/1 outsider virtually on the line to score by a neck. We’d got on at 11/2 and for the second day in a row, our winnings were reduced by a Rule 4 deduction. It was 15p yesterday, reducing our bet to one at 4.68/1, but still far better than the 4/1 SP.
We’re heading North for a double hat-trick bid in the…
Where the double hat-trick is my attempt to land three winners in a row, as does today’s selection Baileys Concerto, who is priced at 3/1 BOG to complete our quests.
Baileys Concerto is trained by (Mrs) Dianne Sayer…
…whose horses have been profitable to follow in NH handicaps for each of the last four years. Since 2011, her record in these races stands at 78 winners from 568 runners at a strike rate of 13.7%, with the 202.3pts level stakes profits equating to an ROI of 35.6%.
In hurdles (like today), her figures are 52/368 (14.1% SR) for 167.9pts (+45.6% ROI), with particular success coming with horses priced from 2/1 (incl) to 12/1 (max), where she has saddled up 45 winners from 216 (20.8% SR), which has generated some 111.6pts profit at an ROI of 51.7%.
He’s a former course and distance winner (LTO, 17 days ago in fact)…
Former Perth course and distance winners have a 31/145 (21.4% SR) record when returning to this track in the last four years and priced in the 5/2 to 8/1 bracket (the area I prefer to work in!). This decent strike rate has produced 53.6pts profit at an ROI of 37% to date. And whilst that’s a good stat on its own to go with the trainer’s own stats, SotD wouldn’t be SotD, if I didn’t drill down further into the numbers, so here goes!
From the 31/145 stat for former C&D winners:
Those who ran in the last 60 days : 27/123 (22% SR) for 51.6pts (+42% ROI)
Those who ran here at Perth LTO : 17/66 (25.8% SR) for 48.6pts (+73.6% ROI)
Those who won LTO : 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 14.9pts (+42.5% ROI)
Won here at Perth LTO: 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+78.1% ROI)
Won here at Perth LTO in the last 6 to 25 days : 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 19pts (+100% ROI)
Won here at Perth LTO over course and distance : 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 17.9pts (+69% ROI)
and finally (!) those who won over course and distance here at Perth last time out in the last 6 to 25 days have won 6 of 18 (33.33% SR) races for level stakes profits of 20pts at an ROI of 111.1%. I think you get the picture! 😀 (Fans of Mitchell & Webb might declare this as numberwang.)
As for Bailey’s Concerto himself, not only does he seek a hat-trick today, but he’s actually looking to land a fifth win win six runs after making great strides this year since switching to Dianne Sayer’s yard. He had made the frame twice in eight starts for Venetia Williams, but ran his first race for his new yard on 15th January this year coming off a 9-month break from racing. He has run for the Sayer yard nine times so far, winning four times in an excellently progressive run of results reading P75411311.
Conditions seem very favourable for him here, as a quick look at this profile tells us that he has a win and a place (3rd ) in two runs here at Perth (C&D win LTO), he has won three of four runs on good ground, he has won both his last two attempts at today’s trip.
Brian Hughes is in the saddle today, having won on this horse the last two times they’ve partnered up and Bailey’s Concerto has a record of 231 at this Class 3 level. all of which make him a very strong contender in my book. Therefore the play today is a 1pt win bet on Bailey’s Concerto at 3/1 BOG. I’m on with BetVictor, but the price is also available in at least two other places, so you should all be able to get on at those prices in the morning.
If the market starts to shift, however, the best thing to do is to…
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