Stat of the Day, 26th September 2014
A hat-trick of hat-tricks yesterday, as for the second day in a row we benefited from an excellent well-timed ride from a good jockey.
Just like Andrea Atzeni on Wednesday, Brian Hughes got it spot on at Perth. He basically put Bailey’s Concerto to sleep at the rear of the pack and simply bided his time.
Virtually last when not fluent 3 from home, then Brian asked for an effort and had moved into second place by the second last hurdle, before drawing alongside the long-time leader at the last.
This pair pulled well clear of the rest, whilst going at it neck and neck towards the line, but our runner had a little bit extra in reserve and just outlasted the runner-up by just over a length, with the 3rd placed horse a further 24 lengths adrift.
Bailey’s Concerto was returned at our advised 3/1 price, adding a further 3pts to September’s profits (now +18.33pts) and completed a hat-trick of wins for us this week, a hat-trick of wins for the horse and it meant that Brian Hughes was now 3 from 3 on this runner.
Three on the bounce isn’t something we get very often, four is extremely rare, but I’m quietly confident about one in today’s…
With a 4/1 BOG bet on Jamie Osborne’s 2 yr old filly La Cuesta, to be ridden by Cam Hardie in this 5f Class 2 Nursery.
Jamie Osborne has never been the most prolific of trainers, but his horses are running pretty well at the moment. Over the last three weeks, he has sent out 22 runners and half of them have been placed with 5 (22.7% SR) going on to win. He has two runners today and La Cuesta has, by far, the best chance of success, as she seeks back to back wins upon her nursery debut.
She was a winner at Wolverhampton last time out (11 days ago)…
Horses running in Haydock handicaps on the back of a win at Wolverhampton last time out have won 16 of 68 races here with that 23.5% strike rate generating 121.5pts profit at an ROI of 178.6%.
Jockey Cam Hardie gets to claim 5lbs today…
Jamie Osborne is one of the better trainers at placing 5lb claiming jockeys onto horses they can win with, or into races they can win! Since 2010, Jamie has used the services of a 5lb claimer in 74 handicap races. 13 winners represents a 17.6% strike rate and the level stakes profits of 70.4pts are worth more than 95 pence on top of every pound wagered.
La Cuesta was sired by Showcasing…
…who is having a really good return from his first set of foals to hit the track. In 2014, his progeny have ran 155 races between them, already clocking up 30 winners (19.4% SR), an excellent strike rate for a first season crop. These winners have helped to amass 126.2pts profit to date at an ROI of 81.4%, but let’s dig a little further into these runners, shall we?
From the original 155 offspring above…
Females are 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 127.7pts (+153.8% ROI), whilst…
…those competing at 5 to 6 furlongs have won 29 of 138 races (21% SR) producing 137.9pts (+99.9% ROI) profit.
Those running over 5 to 6 furlongs at priced at 5/1 or shorter have won 23 of 42 races (54.8% SR) for 47.1pts (+112.1% ROI) profits with the females having a record of 13/22 (59.1% SR) for 35.6pts (+161.9% ROI).
La Cuesta showed plenty of promise when 2nd of 14 at Bath on debut in March and was considered good enough to be entered for and subsequently run in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot in just her second start.
She was 7th of 21 that day and far from disgraced in being beaten by 5.5 lengths by some decent sorts. She then ran at York, where she was beaten by three and a half lengths into fourth place, but mitigating factors should be considered.
She looked like she needed the run after almost three months off the track and she was hampered on the run-in. Her fourth and latest run was the outing at Wolverhampton 8 days later and 11 days ago, where she was an easy winner. She didn’t hit the front until well inside the final furlong, but had such a turn of foot that she pulled clear to score by five lengths going away.
She doesn’t look too badly treated off a mark of 87 for this handicap debut and gets 3lbs (5lb including jockey claims) from the favourite Profitable, who might just struggle to contend with a 6lb rise today.
So, the call is a 1pt win bet on La Cuesta at 4/1 BOG, a price currently available with at least six firms, so we should all get a piece of that. I’ve elected to go with Coral, because they offer a small insurance policy of our money back if we finish second within a head of the winner. It’s a small concession, but as my old grandma used to say, it’s better than a slap across the face with a wet fish! 😀
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