Stat of the Day, 27th September 2014
No SotD 4-timer yesterday, but not a bad effort at all from La Cuesta, as she finished in third place, a couple of lengths shy of the winner.
She found herself sandwiched/hampered a furlong from home and lost some (but crucially not all) impetus and whether this cost her the race or not is open to debate.
She did rally and go again and finished strongly, but she couldn’t catch the two ahead of her, meaning our run of wins came to an end, but we got one to possibly stick in our notebook and we got 4/1 BOG about a 3/1 runner.
We’re not moving far from Haydock for Saturday’s pick who goes in the…
Where jockey David Probert will look to extend his good record aboard Andrew Balding’s horses on the Roodee, as he aims to steer the 11/4 BOG Kinematic to victory on her fourth start and handicap debut.
David’s record is good here, but he owes it to the trainer…
Since the start of the 2011 season, David has a 10/63 (15.9% SR) record here at Chester, but all ten winners have come from the 41 rides on the Balding runners with the 24.4% strike rate generating 12.9pts profit at an ROI of 31.5%.
A similar pattern emerges in handicap contests, as David’s 7/41 (17.1% SR) record is improved to 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 13.3pts (+51.1% ROI) on board Andrew’s runners, with the best results coming from those runners priced between 2/1 and 8/1.
At those odds, David is 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 14.3pts (+65.2% RO) here at Chester and 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 18.3pts (+101.9% ROI) when riding for Andrew Balding.
That’s probably because Andrew’s horses run well here…
In the last five seasons 25 of his 109 runners (22.9% SR) at this venue have been successful, generating level stakes profits of 63pts at an ROI of 57.8%. In 2014, those figures improve to 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 26.4pts (+101.6% ROI).
In handicap races, Andrew has saddled up 18 winners from 69 (26.1% SR) for 46.9pts (+68% ROI) profit. This year, that rises to 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 14.5pts (+85.3% ROI).
Those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 14/1, there has been 24 winners from 94 runners (25.5% SR) for 75.7pts (+80.5% ROI). For the current season, it’s 6/12 (50% SR) for 19.5pts (+162.6% ROI) when priced between 2/1 & 6/1.
And combining the two above ie handicaps and odds filters, we can see that the optimum strategy for backing Andrew’s runners here at Chester is to follow him in handicaps with runners priced between 2/1 and 8/1, where he has a 17/51 (33.33% SR) record in the last five years which has produced some 51.6pts profit to date at an ROI of 101.2%. In 2014, those stats stand at 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.5pts (+142.4% ROI) profit.
Kinematic makes her handicap bow today…
Since the start of the 2009 campaign, Andrew Balding has given 193 horses thier handicap debut on the Flat and whilst 26 winners only produces a modest 13.5% strike rate, that’s still enough to produce 67.8pts profit at an ROI of 35.2%.
Generally, decent profits from a fairly low strike rate suggests that a couple of big-priced winners are skewing the figures and whilst it is true that there are a couple of big winners, there also plenty of big losers and if ignore the bigger priced runners, we can actually improve the strike rate and the ROI at the same time.
With a simple odds parameter setting of 2/1 to 12/1, we lose 61 of the runners, but only 5 of the winners, leaving us with a record of 21 winners from 132 at a strike rate of 15.9% with the 47.6pts level stakes profits slightly raising the ROI to a more than satisfactory 36%.
The above suggests that Kinematic will have been well prepared for this step into handicap company and she comes here in good nick, having finished 232 in her last three outings. She was beaten by two lengths at Lingfield last time out, as she came off the back of a 12-week break to chase a 4/11 favourite home. Her victor that day reappeared at Leicester on Monday and won again stepping up in class (in fact it was a Double Dutch selection!). If that form holds out and she takes advantage of a very good (stall 2) draw, this could be interesting.
Andrew Balding’s horses look like they’re coming into a bit of late season form too, as they had two winners from their three runners on Thursday and are very well represented around the country today.
Kinematic, however, looks to have as good a chance as any of the yard’s representatives today, hence the 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG. That price is widely available, but I’ve gone with Coral again for that “beaten by a head” insurance policy, but you can take your pick of the bookies, when you…
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