Double Dutch, 29th September 2014
A quick fire double on Saturday evening ensured that we ended an up and down week on a high with victories within 10 minutes of each other.
First up was Big Baz, who stuck to the task and stayed on well to take the lead deep inside the final furlong at Haydock to hold on and score by half a length at 11/4. Original first pick and race favourite Balducci was very disappointing and was last home of the 10 runners, beaten by 33 lengths over the mile!
Nevertheless, we were still in there fighting, as the seven madiens set off at Wolverhampton and the horse I really liked for the win, La Napoule, didn’t let us down. She was leading at the 2 pole and was in the clear with a furlong to go and stayed on to win by a comfortable four lengths.
Our other selection Qatar Princess was weak in the market (9/4 to 7/1!) and weak in the finish, fading inside the last furlong to finish fourth. Perhaps the 360-day break caught up with her and she’ll fare better next time out. We’ll see!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Big Baz: won at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Balducci: u/p at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
La Napoule: won at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Qatar Princess: u/p at 7/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
361 winning selections from 1269 = 28.45%
119 winning bets in 330 days = 36.06%
P/L : +67.81pts (+10.25% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After finishing last week well, I hope to continue in the same manner with these…
It’s now 30 races and almost 22 months sine Rylee Mooch last won, but he’s a consistent performer, making the frame in 40% of his 74 races to date, suggesting he tends to be there or thereabouts, as does the fact he’s either won or got within 2 lengths of the winner on 27 occasions to date and 17 times within a length. He showed signs of a return to form last time out, when runner-up here over course and distance nine days ago.
This race looks weaker than his last outing and yet he runs here off the same mark, whilst his victor from nine days ago, Slim Chance, ran again and won again here at Hamilton just a day later. If that form holds up and Rylee Mooch runs to the same level again, then he could finally snap this long losing run with a victory at 3/1 BOG.
The one most likely to deny him yet again, is the form horse of the race Irish Girls Spirit who has won twice and been runner-up twice in her seven runs over the last year. She’s 221 in her last three outings and is unpunished for yesterday’s win at Musselburgh in an apprentices’ handicap that she also won last year. She obviously thrives at this time of year and assuming yesterday didn’t take too much out of her (she made all, wasn’t challenged or ridden hard), she could very well go in again at 7/2 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook.
I find it interesting that Sir Mark Prescott sends just one horse all the way up here from Newmarket when his other three runners have gone to Bath, suggesting he’s expecting something back from Libra Romana‘s long trip. This one has been running well enough of late, doing all her best work staying on late in shorter races than this. I fancy the extra distance will play to her strengths here as should the addition of first time cheekpieces.
The Prescott yard is in excellent form of late with an 8/17 record in the last two weeks and 6/13 over the last seven days, whilst jockey Rosie Jessop is no mug in these apprentice races, especially if there’s money down for her runner. Libra Romana is currently best priced at 15/8 BOG and Rosie’s record in apprentice races on horses priced at 9/2 or shorter is 18/41 (43.9% SR) for 22.4pts (+54.6% ROI).
The main danger is likely to come from Her Red Devil, who has been in good form of late with finishes of 213224 and not beaten by any more than two lengths in that sequence which also contains a runner-up finish and a win over a slightly shorter trip her at Hamilton, so she certainly likes it here. George Chaloner is the only jockey to have ridden her to victory and he’s on board again today looking to repeat that feat at 2/1 BOG (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Rylee Mooch / Libra Romana @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Bet365, BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Rylee Mooch / Her Red Devil< @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Irish Girls Spirit / Libra Romana @ 11.46/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : BetVictor, Boylesports & Hills)
Irish Girls Spirit / Her Red Devil @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 : Stan James)