Stat of the Day, 30th September 2014
Well done to those of you who took the 6/1 E/W option on Monday, as you will have made another small piece of profit to go with what we’ve already banked for September. Those of you who followed my win only lead still can’t be too disappointed about the result.
Our runner was held up for a run and finished very strongly but couldn’t quite get to a couple in front of him and he eventually went down by two necks. We’d taken 6/1 about a 9/2 horse narrowly beaten. In my book, there’s no problem with that and we’ll make our fair share of money from such bets.
Last SotD of what has been a very profitable and exciting month and we bow out with a familiar name to regular readers in the…
Dianne Sayer is one of those trainers who pops up regularly on SotD and why? Because she’s profitable to follow and of you have that as a base, you can’t/won’t go too far wrong. And just as recently as last Thursday, we selected Mrs Sayer’s Bailey Concerto and Brian Hughes rode him to victory at 3/1.
It’s the same trainer/jockey combo today as they team up with one horse here, Sendiym, who is currently priced at 13/2 BOG in places, which looks a touch long to me and will probably shorten as time passes.
We’ll start with the trainer’s general record…
Dianne Sayer is profitable to back in UK NH handicap races full stop. Since the start of 2011, her horses have a record reading 80 wins from 570 (14% SR) for 210pts of level stakes profit at a very handy 36.9% ROI. A huge sample size and lots of profit for us to break down! 😀
From this, her hurdlers are 54/370 at an increased strike rate of 14.6% and profits of 175.7pts are worth 47.5 pence for every pound invested and if we then ignored the horses we wouldn’t generally consider for SotD and look just at those priced between 5/2 and 12/1, we have whittled the original 570 runners down to just 213, but of the 213, we have 45 winners at a strike rate of 21.1% generating 118.3pts profit at an ROI of 55.5%.
And I could stop there and the selection would be justified, but there are more specific stats to aid us here…
How does the yard perform here at Sedgefield?
Pretty well is the answer to that, but off a fairly small set of data admittedly. 9 winners from 48 in the same time frame as above is a strike rate of 18.8% and the 67.1pts profits represent some 139.7% ROI. Her hurdlers are 6/29 (20.7% SR) for 75.1pts (+258.8% ROI!) here, of which there is a 5/17 (29.4% SR) record for her hurdlers priced from 5/2 to 12/1 and these have generated 25.3pts (+148.5% ROI) profit to date.
So, it could be said, she bats above her average here.
Sendiym won over this course and distance last time out, a fortnight ago…
Dianne’s hurdlers who won last time out over the last four years have a 12/47 record in handicap hurdle events when trying to complete back to back wins. This 25.5% strike rate has generated 9.2pts profit at 19.5% ROI. Of these 47 LTO winners…
Those who ran in the last 20 days are 12/38 (31.6% SR) for 18.2pts (+47.8% ROI)
Those priced in the 9/4 to 8/1 bracket are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 24.5pts (+81.5% ROI)
Whilst those who ran in the last 20 days and were priced between 9/4 & 8/1 are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 27.5pts (+101.7% ROI) profit.
Sendiym is also one of my “back to form” horses…
There is a train of thought that once a horse snaps out of a losing run, that turning him/her out again quite quickly (but not too quickly!) could see the horse go very well again. I did quite a bit of digging around this issue last year and have continued to do this year and what I found was that since 2008 in UK NH handicap hurdle races, horses who won last time out 10 to 25 days ago after a run of unplaced (3 or more in a row!) efforts were likely to do well again.
In fact, since 2008, there has been 128 winners from the 725 horses sent out again in a bid to strike whilst the iron was hot and this 17.5% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 188.4pts at an ROI of 26%.
If you don’t fancy placing that many bets, you could easily restrict yourself to those in the 5/2 to 10/1 range, where you would have hit 91 winners from 480 bets (19% SR) and made yourself a very handy 160.1pts (+33.4% ROI) profit to boot. Dianne Sayer is 2/8 for 3.9pts from that set of runners.
So, the stats suggest we have a live chance here today, so what of Sendiym?
He’s 3 from 5 here at Sedgefield (11F21) and 1/1 over course and distance (that LTO run a fortnight ago under today’s jockey). All four of his career wins (4/24 in NH races) have been on left handed tracks, he’s 3/13 on good ground, 3/12 under Brian Hughes and has won two of his last four at Class 4 level. He’s a recent course and distance winner who runs well at this time of year, his last five September/October outings have finished 121F1.
This is a tougher assignment than last time out, but last year’s winner of this race Weybridge Light defends his “title” again, having finished almost three lengths behind Sendiym a fortnight ago. All things considered, I think he has an excellent chance were and I’d be surprised if he didn’t at least make the frame. There’s just about enough juice in the price to hedge my bets here, so I’m placing a 0.5pts E/W bet on Sendiym at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor.
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