Double Dutch, 1st October 2014
Without actually winning yesterday, we really couldn’t have come much closer to landing a nice 12/1 double, which would have sat really well with the SotD 13/2 success in my 96.5/1 treble!
Scrafton was the “unlucky” one up at Ayr, getting caught right on the line by fast finishing top weight and 16/1 shot Miss Macnamara, despite our pick getting an 11lb weight for age allowance from the winner, but these things do happen, so there’s little point lamenting our luck!
All of which was a pity really as, 10 minutes later, Peachey Moment produced exactly the kind of I expected/hoped he would. He also defied top weight and made all, staying on well to win by a length and a half with the only real surprise being a small drift out to 3/1 from my advised 5/2.
Looking back, 3/1 was an excellent price and well done to those who backed him in a single.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Scrafton: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
A Southside Boy: u/p at 11/2 (adv 9/2)
Peachey Moment: won at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Everylasting: u/p (3rd) at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
3632 winning selections from 12773 = 28.43%
119 winning bets in 332 days = 35.84%
P/L : +63.81pts (+9.59% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are the chosen races for Wednesday
Manofmanytalents has finished 4th (beaten by 6L) and then 3rd (1.5L) in two improving runs in 5f maidens at Sandown with Adam Beschizza in the saddle. Adam is a decent jockey, but I find it significant that Kieren Fallon has been brought in to see if he can get a little bit more out of this 2yr old and he is highly likely to be involved at 7/2 BOG.
The fly in the ointment and most likely winner in my book, however, is the 7/4 BOG (Coral) favourite Just Us Two, who also makes his third start, having competed in both of those Sandown races above.
He was fifth on debut, a place and 5 lengths behind Manofmanytalents, but improved past his rival in that second outing to finish a place and half a length ahead of him. Just Us Two showed decent early pace at Sandown and on a quicker surface today, should just edge it.
It took Faure Island 13 attempts to get off the mark, culminating in a two length victory at Leicester nine days ago on similarly quick ground to what he’ll face today and over today’s 8.5f trip. Yet despite taking so long to get off the mark, he had been runnnig consistently well finishing 2423332 in his previous seven outings.
His record is 321 since stepping up to a mile (8.45f last time) and he does prefer the quicker ground (231 on good to firm). He stayed on strongly last time out, suggesting he still has more to give and he’s still improving at this trip. With that in mind, I fancy him to defy a 6lb penalty and go in again here at 5/2 BOG (Coral).
There are question marks about all of his seven rivals today, but the best chance from them should probably lie with 11/4 BOG chance Unforgiving Minute, if he can be kept calm in the preliminaries. He was a well beaten last of five in a far better race than this at Haydock four weeks ago. He was very unsettled in the stalls and pretty blew his chance before he started. It was also suggested that the Good to Soft ground was too soft for him and that he needed further than 7 furlongs: both of which are rectified here.
Prior to that effort at Haydock, he won a 14-runner maiden on the quicker A/W surface at Kempton over a mile, which tends to back up the conclusions drawn from Haydock. Unforgiving Minute beat Above The Rest by half a length that day with the latter going on win two of his next three starts, including a next time out run here at Nottingham over today’s course and distance.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Just Us Two / Faure Island @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2: Coral)
Just Us Two / Unforgiving Minute @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Ladbrokes)
Manofmanytalents / Faure Island @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2: generally)
Manofmanytalents / Unforgiving Minute @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)