Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2014
Nearest The Pin’s fall 2 fences from home put paid to a kickstart to October’s proceeding at Sligo, but I wasn’t too disheartened at losing a point. I was happy that i’d backed him and he looked well placed to defy top weight and a 2pt drift in the market to 6/1 at the off.
He seemed to travel really well and coasted up to join the leader just before the penultimate fence and it looked like the plan would be to clear the fence and kick on for home. The camera angle on the top turn isn’t great at Sligo, but it a seemed the horse didn’t extend his front legs and pretty much landed on his knees, sending his jockey and our betting slips to the ground.
I don’t like starting the month with a loser, but the beauty of a new month is that we’ve plenty (26!) more opportunities ahead of us: the next of which runs in Thursday’s…
Where I’ll be backing Charlie Longsdon’s Tidal Way at 5/2 BOG with Hills.
Charlie’s record here at Bangor is very good with 17 winners from 69 runners here since 2009. This 24.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 47.5pts at an ROI of 68.9% to date.
From this 17/69 recent record..
In handicaps : 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 37.8pts (+102.1% ROI)
Over hurdles : 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 29.1pts (+111.9% ROI)
Priced at 4/1 or shorter : 12/27 (44.4% SR) for 16.4pts (+60.6% ROI)
Handicap hurdlers are 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 33.7pts (+210.8% ROI) with a 3/9 record when sent off at 6/1 or shorter producing level stakes profits of 7.8pts (+86.6% ROI)
The yard is in good form at present…
Which is no surprise as they tend to do very well at this time of year anyway. With all runners priced at 4/1 or shorter in the months of September and October, since 1st September 2010, Charlie has had 63 winners from just 142 runners. This 44/4% strike rate is fantastic and has generated level stakes profits of 46pts at an ROI of 32.4%.
From that 63/142 record…
In handicaps : 30/66 (45.5% SR) for 36.7pts (+55.7% ROI)
Over hurdles : 28/60 (46.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+34.1% ROI)
Handicap hurdlers are 12/23 (52.2% SR) for 20.2pts (+87.9% ROI) with a record of 8/13 for 16.8pts since 1st September 2013.
Tidal Way runs after a long absence and some poor form…
It’s true that he wasn’t at his best in the spring and now returns after a break of 174 days, which might concern some people. However, if you look at this record, you’ll see he didn’t run well in the spring of 2013, before taking a break of 153 days to return to action here at Bangor on the 3rd October, where he was a winner over today’s course and distance, virtually a year to the day.
He is 2 from 3 over course and distance, runs off a mark 2lbs lower than last years win and 4lbs lower than his highest winning mark and he has three carer runs in the month of October already, winning two and finishing third in the other. In short, he prefers this time of year to spring and he likes Bangor. (I also like Bangor, who wouldn’t? 😀 )
5/2 BOG is, admittedly, at the lower end of where I like to place my SotD bets, but I am expecting to be collecting later! I’ve got on with Hills, but the price is available with at least three other firms, so why not…
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