Double Dutch, 3rd October 2014
Peace Accord led Aragosta home in last night’s last race at Kempton, holding on to score by a head and netting us a 15/2 exacta in the process. With starting prices of 2/1 & 11/4, we’d have been better off had the placings been reversed, but I shouldn’t get greedy.
Not that the result counted for anything for the double, as two hours earlier, the 16/1-rated top weight Ogbourne Downs (tipped by Bookies Enemy!) beat our pick The Steward by three parts of a length to deny us a double at 8.75/1.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
The Steward: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Never To Be: u/p at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Peace Accord: won at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Aragosta: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
365 winning selections from 1284 = 28.43%
119 winning bets in 334 days = 35.63%
P/L : +61.81pts (+9.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ve left it late today, because there seems to be lots of non-runners around and I wanted the markets to settle before selecting these for Thursday…
Morning Time has won four of his eight runs over today’s course and distance, she’s admittedly 3/6 over hurdles and this is a chase, but he has finished third and first in his two efforts over fences here. The win came on his last visit to this track back in June, when Harrys Whim finished third, 3 lengths adrift, but has since stepped up Class 4 & 3 races finishing 2122, whilst the runner-up Robins Command has raced four time since, winning three times and going down by a neck in the only defeat.
There’s not often a lot of room for sentiment in racing, but it would also be quite fitting if trainer Lucinda Russell could land a race dedicated to her former jockey Campbell Gilliesand at 3/1 BOG, Morning Time would appear to offer some value.
The form suggests that Claragh Native would provide the stiffest challenge here, coming off the back of a win where he beat the afore-mentioned Robins Command at Perth by a neck with today’s re-opposing Toledo Gold and Sergeant Pink a further 10 and 23 lengths respectively further back.
He’s up 5lbs today and due to go up another 3lbs, but the five might not be enough to stop him, especially as Robins Command has gone on to win by 2 lengths since, despite also being raised 3lbs from that Perth outing. Whether or not Claragh Native will beat Morning Time is unclear, but he should hold Toledo Gold and Sergeant Pink on form and is therefore an ideal selection at 3/1 BOG.
Curragh Golan was half a length ahead of Brand Ambassador when finishing second behind Ask Vic, beaten by a length and a half over today’s trip last time out at Listowel a fortnight ago and I expect them to remain fairly closely matched again today. There was no disgrace in that defeat for either horse, as Ask Vic’s record now reads 11511 after that encounter and she’s clearly one on the rise to better things.
Brand Ambassador has clearly had some problems, as that third placed finish at Listowel was only his second run in over two years. He was off the track for 732 days, before reappearing at Navan a fortnight before that Listowel race. He was a winner on his comeback in a maiden hurdle over today’s trip, so it’s clear that Gordon Elliott has got him fit and running well after the lengthy lay off. he’s up a couple of pounds today, but Barry Geraghty (who rode him to victory at Navan) is aback in the saddle and could well get more out fo him than the apprentice did last time out. all of which points to 7/2 BOG looking quite generous in my book.
Curragh Golan is also likely to well involved, based on that Listowel effort and having made the frame in six of his last nine starts (including 2 wins at today’s trip), his consistency has to be considered and you’d expect him to be there or thereabouts once again at a pretty attractive 7/2 BOG also.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Claragh Native / Curragh Golan @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Claragh Native / Brand Ambassador @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Morning Time / Curragh Golan @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Bet365, Paddy Power & Stan James)
Morning Time / Brand Ambassador @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2: Boylesports)