Double Dutch, 4th October 2014
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 4th October 2014
There was no sentimental fairytale victory for Lucinda Russell yesterday as Morning Time was beaten by just over three lengths by Toledo Gold, who I thought would have been held on past form, but that wasn’t to be and a 3/1 runner-up berth was the best we could muster.
So, despite Brand Ambassador continuing his resurgence at Gowran Park five minute later, we came away empty-handed again. A quick pat on the back, though, to trainer Gordon Elliott who has worked wonders to get this horse firing again after a long lay-off.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Morning Time: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Claragh Native: u/p at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
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Brand Ambassador: won at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Curragh Golan: PU at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
366 winning selections from 1288 = 28.42%
119 winning bets in 335 days = 35.63%
Stakes: 669.50pts
Returns: 729.31pts
P/L : +59.81pts (+8.93% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Her’s my play for Saturday…
Orsm had a wind operation at the end of his last campaign and has come back a different animal. He won on his seasonal reappearance at Plumpton in May after 7 months off the track and followed that up with a narrow (1.5L) defeat here over course and distance at Fontwell, coming from further back off the pace and will be in contention if kept a little closer the action on the final circuit today. I can forgive a fairly poor effort last time out, where the ground conditions at Huntingdon seemed too soft for him, and with better ground here can return to form with a win at 11/4 BOG.
Standing in his way is the 7/4 BOG favourite The King’s Assassin, who is a former course winner and has a runner-up finish to his name on his only effort at this 3m3f trip, when beaten by Silent Knight at Newton Abbot. The latter has since gone on to win one and place once from three subsequent starts at a higher grade than this encounter and The King’s Assassin is dropping in class here too. He has finished third on each of his last two starts, both here at Fontwell and both over an inadequate 2m6.5f. He was outpaced on both occasions and the step back up in trip is sure to help.
*
Majestic Sun was unlucky to be beaten by just a neck over course and distance a fortnight ago and can go one better today. He’s in good shape, having won at Epsom six days ago over today’s trip and as that was an apprentices’ race, he’s unpenalised for that win. He’s also dropping in class here today, he gets a healthy weight for age allowance and his jockey takes 5lbs off, all of which means he’s potentially very well in here at 11/4 BOG.
Dukes Delight is steadily progressive and is unexposed after just 5 runs to date (76431) and would possibly be the one to back here, but for a 434 day absence from the track. Her trainer (Lanigan) and jockey (Baker) are both in good form and it looks like they’ve identified a pretty weak looking contest to return to. The race she won at Kempton last August has produced plenty of winners and was at least on an artificial surface and over today’s trip. The lay-off is a concern, but 3/1 BOG looks pretty reasonable value to me.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
The King’s Assassin / Majestic Sun @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
The King’s Assassin / Dukes Delight @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Orsm / Majestic Sun @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Orsm / Dukes Delight @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1: Boylesports)
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