Stat of the Day, 4th October 2014
Friday proved to be third time lucky at getting us on the score board for the October after two fallers had kicked the month off. Quest For More kept his feet on the ground and produced a workmanlike display and duyg deep to hold on under a well-timed ride by an in-form George Baker.
George had to be patient hemmed in against the rail and he bided his time waiting for a gap and one it came he squeezed up the inner to defy top weight and a late surge from the 3/1 favourite to land the spoils by half a length.
We’d backed him at 13/2 and I had quite correctly predicted a well fancied non-runner leading to a Rule 4 deduction. It was 20p in the pound on this occasion, turning our bet into one at 5.2/1 and whilst it’s mild annoying to hand 1.3pts back, it’s also very reassuring to know that we got virtually 150% of the winners 7/2 SP.
Now we’re up and running for the month, I want another winner and so I’ve targeted the…
Where Rae Guest’s 4 yr old filly, Calm Attitude, is available at 5/1 BOG with Paddy Power for this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good ground.
She’ll be looking to add to Rae’s impressive handicap record…
Since the start of the 2010 season, Rae Guest has a 15.2% strike rate in flat handicap races, courtesy of a 66 winners from 434 record, which in turn, has generated level stakes profits of 82.1pts at an ROI of 18.9%.
He seems to have more joy with “lower grade” runners ie those competing at today’s Class 4 or worse, where his record in that same time period reads 60 winners from 352 (17.1% SR) for 118.7pts (+33.7% ROI). Horses running in the 5/2 to 10/1 price range are 43/231 (18.6% SR) for 73pts (+31.6% ROI) profit, whilst those competing over 9-10 furlongs are 12/59 (20.3% SR) for 75.7pts (+128.3% ROI) to date.
He also does well with “ladies” of a certain age…
No, I’m not being rude here! 😀 But I’m referring to the fact his 3 to 6 yr old female runners perform particularly well at Class 4/5 level. Since 2009 and disregarding any priced above 14/1, the record is 60 winners from 252 runners (23.8% SR) for 120.7pts profit at an ROI of 47.9%.
Calm Attitude drops in class today…
Rae’s class droppers in flat handicaps have won 26 of 117 races since the start of the 2008 campaign with that 2 in 9 (22.22%SR) record reaping level stakes profits of 107.1pts or 91.5% of all stakes invested.
Those who were dropping in to the lower grade (classes 4 to 6) won 25 of 100 outings (25% SR) for 113.6pts (+113.6% ROI) and with a simple 8/1 cap applied to those 100 runners, we end up with 20 winners from 62 (32.3% SR) for 43.4pts (+70% ROI) profit.
Those dropping into Class 4 only won 7 of 24 races (29.25 SR) for 49.2pts (+204.8% ROI) with a record of 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 16.8pts (+105.1% ROI) when priced below 8/1 as above.
It’s Saturday today…
Yes, Chris, we know it’s Saturday, why tell us?
Well, certain trainers tend to do well on Saturdays in handicaps. Only last week I heard the people on Channel 4 saying how well David O’Meara did on Saturdays and Rae Guest is another.
There are lots of reasons why Saturday racing is different, be it extra races, more prize money, easier access for the working man who might be in a racing club/syndicate and wanting to see their horse run without taking time off work.
Whatever the reasoning behind it, certain trainers including Rae Guest have a decent record on Saturdays. Since 2008 Rae’s own record in Saturday flat handicaps is 14 winners from 84 (16.7% SR) for 31.8pts (+37.9% ROI) profit.
Of the 84 runners, there’s a 12/48 (25% SR) record for 17.2pts (+35.8% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6, those running below 8/1 are 13/38 (34.2% SR) for 36pts (+94.7% ROI) whilst those sub-8/1 runners running at classes 4 to 6 are 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 33.2pts (+103.7% ROI).
Calm Attitude comes here off the back of some good form, she won each of her last three starts last season and picked up where she left off by wining on her seasonal reappearance this year at Chepstow in May over today’s 1m2f trip. She struggled to stay 1m4f next time out, but ran to within a neck of the winner dropping back to 10 furlongs next time out.
Since then, she’s had just the one run, finishing second (beaten by a length and a quarter) in a decent 16-runner Class 2 handicap. She runs off a mark of 84, just squeezing into this race and if she runs anything like the way she did two grades higher, then this should be an easier task for her.
She would, admittedly, prefer a bit more “give” in the ground, it’s currently Good here and being watered, but some fairly substantial rain is set to sweep the country on Saturday afternoon and if that materialises, would play to her strengths nicely.
Plenty to consider, but I think she stands an excellent chance here and I also believe we’re getting a good price with a 1pt win bet on Calm Attitude at 5/1 BOG with Paddy Power. As always, I recommend that you…
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