Double Dutch, 6th October 2014
Saturday frustratingly went the same way as many days have of late, where we coupled a winner with a narrow and unexpected loser. Saturday’s “victim” was the AP McCoy-ridden Orsm, who was (as I’d hoped) kept prominent throughout, but was outpaced over the last 100 yards or so of a 3m3f slog, eventually beaten by a length behind the 33/1 outsider of the 8-runner field.
This meant that, once again, we headed off to Wolverhampton for the evening meeting with just pride to play for and here we got on the right end of a tight one, so I supposes fair’s fair! Dukes Delight continued her progression and defied a 14 month lay-off to get up by a neck late on.
Depending on how you look at things, we were a length away from a nice 14/1 double or we were a neck away from drawing a total blank. Either way, it just wasn’t enough!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Orsm: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
The King’s Assassin: u/p at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Dukes Delight: won at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Majestic Sun: u/p at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
367 winning selections from 1292 = 28.41%
119 winning bets in 336 days = 35.42%
P/L : +57.81pts (+8.61% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are our chosen races for Monday…
Which looks a dreadfully poor affair on paper, but at least one of the runners has shown consistency and that must make Dalgig the most likely winner at 15/8 BOG today. He might well be an 11-race maiden, but his record on turf suggests he’s knocking one the door at least with results reading 342322. He has finished second in each of his last efforts over today’s trip and was only beaten by a head at Catterick on his only previous effort on ground softer than Good.
This is arguably the worst contest he has competed in to date, so any repeat of his past turf form should actually be enough here today and I’d be very surprised if he’s not there or thereabouts.
As for his rivals, there are question marks about all of them, but I’m going to tentatively side with Mark Johnston’s Henry The Aviator who is probably a better horse than his recent record would suggest. Mind you, he tends to operate at Class 3 & 4 level nowadays, so it’s a little surprising to see him pitch up here. 3 wins and 4 places from 15 runs is very good in the context of this race, but he hasn’t hit the heights of last season where he was a Class 3 winner.
A step up in trip to 1m2f for the first time whilst taking a drop down in class (he was running at C2 in the summer!) allied to a first-time booking of Ryan Moore (excellent record here at Windsor) makes him an interesting entry here and his team will see this as a way back to some form with a win at 3/1 BOG.
Since finishing 7th of 12 runners on debut in May of this year, you’ve pretty well known what to expect from Mr McLaren as his consistent form reads 12310234 and apart from the duck egg four starts ago, hasn’t been beaten by more than 2.5 lengths in any of those defeats. Most of those efforts have been in Class 4 handicaps and a drop down a level should help him resume winning ways today. He has also been staying on well of late and just not quite getting there, so the step up to a mile could also benefit him in his bid to land this one at 9/4 BOG.
The main issue, however, is can Mr McLaren afford to give away as much weight here as he is asked to do and at 15lbs lighter, Pigeon Pie looks very attractively priced at Skybet who offer 100/30 BOG. She comes here in good form, having finished third in three of her four outings before a win lat time out at Musselburgh, where she comfortably strung the field out over 1m1f eight days ago. She wore blinkers for the first time that day and if they have the same effect here, she could very well upset the current market leader.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Dalgig / Mr McLaren @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Boylesports)
Dalgig / Pigeon Pie @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor & Skybet)
Henry The Aviator / Mr McLaren @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4; Boylesports)
Henry The Aviator / Pigeon Pie @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : BetVictor & Skybet)