Double Dutch, 8th October 2014
Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse, yesterday was truly awful!
A runner-up and a pulled up horse followed an earlier debacle at Brighton where my selections finished 8th and 9th in a 10-horse race.
The less said, the better, I think I’ll just crack on!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Koharu: u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Saskias Dream: u/p at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Eastern Magic: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Philsofy: PU at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
368 winning selections from 1300 = 28.31%
119 winning bets in 338 days = 35.21%
P/L : +53.81pts (+7.97% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ve left it late again for the non-runners to come out on Wednesday, which now looks like this…
Knight of Pleasure returns to the track after an absence of 214 days, but this doesn’t cause too much concern, as he tends to go best after a break, having won at Fontwell last November after a lay off of 224 days, so you can be fairly certain that he’s race-ready. He looks well treated in a fairly nondescript looking race as the Moore team look to have an opportunity for him to win a chase at the first time of asking.
You know he’ll have been well schooled and as a former Class3 winner over hurdles and as a competitor at Group 2 and Group 3 level off a mark of 131, coming here to run off 127 might just give Knight of Pleasure the upper hand over Kitchapoly, who does at least have the benefit of a prior run (and win!) over fences.
Kitchapoly won a 16.5f novice chase at Worcester last time out and that run four weeks ago is the best piece of recent form in the whole field here. He’s 3161 over this trip (first three over hurdles) and has made the paces in 5 of his 10 starts to date (2 wins), so the consistency is there. Kitchapoly gets 4lbs from Knight of Pleasure, meaning there’ll not be much between them today, as can be seen in the market, where they both trade at around the 7/4 BOG mark.
Where Black Granite is 85/40 BOG with BetVictor in his bid to land a hat-trick of wins from his first three handicap races. He has won comfortably on his last two outings, seeming to have plenty in hand and it’s unlikely that a 9lb rise in weight will be enough to stop him here. He steps down in class today and has already won over today’s 1m trip. His yard is in good form and he’s used to these smaller fields having won a 7-runner affair last time out.
Of the rest, the pick is between Shalimar and Khusoosy and there’s little to really separate them. Both won last time out, improving upon decent enough debut runs and both make their nursery debut today. I’m going to side with Khusoosy, though, as there’s more value in his current 9/2 BOG odds, his yard are good with handicap debutants, especially those moving up in trip/class and although Khusoosy is moving from Class 4 to Class 3, this race is 2 grades higher for Shalimar, which might just be a step too far in the early stages of his career.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Knight of Pleasure / Black Granite @ 7.59/1 (7/4 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Knight of Pleasure / Khusoosy @ 14.13/1 (7/4 & 9/2 : generally)
Kitchapoly / Black Granite @ 7.98/1 (15/8 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Kitchapoly / Khusoosy @ 14.81/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Bet365 & Coral)