Stat of the Day, 9th October 2014
A good day for Team Skelton and SotD on Wednesday, as What A Warrior ran out a convincing winner. Whether he was tiring, idling, being lonely or lazy late on is open to debate, his jockey might have just been sparing him for another day. Nevertheless he kicked for home off the final bend and may well have opened up a lead of up to 20 lengths, before eventually winning by 10!
It was a great yard debut for him and he was returned as the 7/4 favourite, having been well backed in from our advised 11/4 BOG. Devon awaits us next and the…
Where David Pipe turns the 4/1 BOG Bathwick Man out quickly again, aiming to take advantage of the good run of recent form from this 9 yr old. He last raced a week ago, when third (beaten by just 2L over a longer trip) at Warwick and this will be his fifth run in the last eight weeks with a run of form reading 2213 in that time.
With a run just a week ago and also having been seen at least twice in the last three months makes him what Matt likes to call a Hard Fit runner. We’re basically looking for a horse fitting the following bill:
Aged 6-9 yrs old / last ran within 7 days / at least 2 other runs in the previous 3 months.
And since 2009 there has been literally thousands of qualifiers and a near 1-in-6 strike rate, but I’m going to be a little more specific here. In handicap hurdle contests, the figures read as 391 winners from 2579 runners (I told you there were plenty!); a strike rate of 15.2% generating a massive 1010.2pts profit at an incredible ROI of 39.2%.
Those dropping in trip, as Bathwick Man does here have won 105 of 644 (16.3% SR) contests for level stakes profits of 766.1pts (+119% ROI), whilst those who finished 2nd. 3rd or 4th last time out, went on to win 152 of 808 (18.8% SR) races for 253.2pts (+28.9% ROI) profit.
From those 808 who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO, 225 were beaten by just two lengths or less last time out and 66 of these 225 (29.3% SR) were successful producing level stakes profits of 85.3pts at an ROI of 37.9%.
5 lb claimer Kieron Edgar takes the ride here…
Bathwick Man‘s trainer David Pipe has a good record placing 5lb claiming jockeys on his runners. He doesn’t use them very often, but hey are profitable to follow. Since 2008, David has employed the services of a 5lb claimer on 126 occasions. 27 winners have come from those 126 rides with the 15.3% strike rate generating 90.9pts profit at an ROI of 51.7%. Digging down from this stat, we find the following:
In handicap races : 23/130 (17.7% SR) for 122.4pts (+94.1% ROI)
Class 3/4 handicap races : 17/77 (22.1% SR) for 74.7pts (+97% ROI)
Handicap hurdles : 17/91 (18.7% SR) for 92.9pts (+102.1% ROI)
Class 3/4 handicap hurdles : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 87.1pts (+158.3% ROI)
Kieron Edgar’s record is 2 from 9 for 8.74pts: a small sample size but still profitable.
As I said at the top of the piece, Bathwick Man is in good shape and is in form. He did flag a little towards the end of his last outing and the 2f drop in trip is sure to help him in his bid to clock up another win for a yard which is going really well at present, having landed 11 wins from 31 in the last month.
I say the drop in trip should help him as his record at this type of distance reads 14P211522, 3 wins and 3 places from 9 attempts isn’t bad going at all.
This race shouldn’t take too much winning, to be honest and running off the same mark as last week should keep our boy competitive in what the bookies see as a fairly open contest. This works to or advantage as we’ll get a decent price on our selection, so the call is a simple one to make: it’s a 1pt win bet on Bathwick Man at 4/1 BOG. I know at least five bookies offering that price, so you should have no problems getting on.
For the record, I’ve gone with Boylesports, but you can place your own bets after you…
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