Double Dutch, 9th October 2014
Well, I got something right yesterday when I suggested that Knight of Pleasure should lead Kitchapoly home and that there’d not be much between them. As it was, there was just 2.5 lengths separating them at the end of 2 miles and half a furlong with the next horse a good 25+ lengths adrift.
Unfortunately, though we had to settle for the places, as our runners couldn’t catch Garrahalish who jumped best and made all, scoring by almost four lengths.
This once again meant we entered the second half of the doubles with nothing to play for and our chances of at least landing a winner were dented when Black granite was withdrawn, leaving just Khusoosy to run for us, but he was disappointing if I’m honest.
He was slow away and never really got into the race, eventually finishing fifth of the six runners, a good(?) 22 lengths off the pace, one place and 12 lengths behind the overlooked Shalimar.
So, I remain firmly on the cold list and whilst the profits and ROI have taken a battering of late, there’s no alarm here just yet. Betting is cyclical and good/bad runs will always occur. Confidence and spirits remain high here! 😀
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Knight of Pleasure: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Kitchapoly: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Khusoosy: u/p at 9/4 (adv 9/2)
Black Granite: non-runner (adv 85/40)
Results to date:
368 winning selections from 1303 = 28.24%
119 winning bets in 339 days = 35.10%
P/L : +51.81pts (+7.65% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how I hope Thursday unfolds…
Ni Sin E Mo Ainm (That’s not my name) is an interesting recruit to Neil Mulholland’s yard and the in-form trainer looks to have found a pretty weak looking contest for this horse’s UK debut. He has shown glimpses of potential in Ireland, notably when 2nd of 14 at Wexford earlier this year. He’s still relatively unexposed after just 8 starts and his breeding suggests he’ll be well suited by today’s trip.
Neil Mulholland is an NH trainer on the rise and you can be sure he’ll have prepped this one properly and although not a strong pick, Ni Sin E Mo Ainm ticks more boxes than most of his rivals and looks fairly reasonably treated off 97 and 7/2 BOG looks quite appealing.
My preference, however, is for Yabadabadoo who had up to his last run, been running pretty consistently despite not winning. Mind you, none of the runners here have a hurdles win to their name! He had been placed three times and finished firth twice in his first five runs, before flopping last time out. He has been rested since then and now returns after a break of almost 6 months.
This layoff can be seen as a positive, as his best run to date came off a break of 268 days, when second of ten at Huntingdon, suggesting he goes well fresh. Five of his six starts have been at 2m2f or shorter with that Huntingdon effort standing out over a 2m 4.5f trip. Yabadabadoo has always looked like he wanted further and the extra furlong could be decisive here in his bid to win for the first time at 9/4 BOG.
Paul Nicholls has a 44% strike rate (12/27 for 22pts) in hurdles races here at Worcester in the last 5 years and the 7/4 BOG favourite As De Mee is the kind of ex-French Bumper horse that he excels with. The horse finished 212 in his three bumper races across the Channel, before changing hands for 200,000 euros in February, suggesting he’s destined for better things than this race. And on hos last start in France he was second (4 lengths) behind current the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite Allez Colombieres, which might (or might not!) give an idea of how good he’s expected to become.
If things, however, don’t fall his way, then I’d expect the half-brother to Alberta’s Run, Highpower to be the one to take most advantage ahead of hurdling debutant Gaelic Myth, who might just need the experience over obstacles today. Highpower progressed well enough last winter with finishes of 673, with that last outing clearly the pick of his form where he got to within 3.5 lengths of Desoto County whose career record now reads 122121 and if that form hols up, he could be a player here at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Yabadabadoo / As De Mee @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Coral & Hills)
Yabadabadoo / Highpower @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Ni Sin E Mo Ainm / As De Mee @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Boylesports, Skybet & Coral)
Ni Sin E Mo Ainm / Highpower @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Stan James)