Stat of the Day, 10th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2014

No joy in Devon for us on Thursday, as the race was possibly one effort too many for a busy horse. Bathwick Man travelled well enough for the vast majority of the race and was kept well in touch until push came to shove 3 furlongs from home.

It was at this point that the race began to develop properly, but he didn’t have enough in reserve and weakened out of contention to eventually finish 5th of 8 runners, 16 lengths off the pace.

Once again we beat the book, taking 4/1 about a 100/30 horse, but that was scant consolation, I’m afraid. I aim to recoup this loss as soon as possible and so my quest takes me North up the M6 to Cumbria and the…

3.45 Carlisle:

And the in-form Charlie Longsdon’s horse Orange Nassau who is available to back at 7/2 BOG.

Six winners from sixteen in the last week is no surprise…

..to those who know how Charlie operates at this time of year. The months of September and October are particularly fruitful for his string, as most of them come back from summer breaks. Since the start of September 2010, these two months of the year have seen the Longsdon horses win 79 of 279 races: a 28.3% strike rate yielding a modest 23.8pts profit at an ROI of 8.5%. These aren’t huge profits, but they are from blind backing at an average of 1 bet per day, so it’s not bad as a starting point from which we can derive the following…

Handicappers : 37/141 (26.2% SR) for 19.7pts (+14% ROI)
Chasers : 29/99 (29.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+14.2% ROI)
Priced below 9/2 : 53/135 (39.3% SR) for 37.2pts (+27.6% ROI)
Handicap Chasers : 20/75 (26.739.3% SR) for 12pts (+16% ROI)
Handicap Chasers priced below 9/2 : 18/45 (40% SR) for 14.5pts (+32.3% ROI)

Charlie also has a decent enough record here at Carlisle…

…if not massively (or blindly!) profitable. He doesn’t actually send that many runners here, but since 2011, six of his nineteen that have come here have been winners, which is a 31.6% strike rate. Unfortunately, backing all of them would have cost you 2.6pts, but there is profit to be made at the sharper end of the market, where we’ll be playing today. All 6 winners here at Carlisle came from the 13 runners priced at 9/2 or shorter, with that 46.2% strike rate yielding a small 3.4pts profit to date. 3.4pts seems small, but it’s actually 26.2% of stakes invested.

Orange Nassau drops markedly in trip after pulling up last time out…

Which I find interesting, if a little quirky, as I found that chasers can be quite profitable to back if running at the same class, but down in trip as their last race, in which they were pulled up. The strike rate isn’t massive, as you’ll see, but these horses tend to be underbacked, because people’s first view is the dreaded P next the horse’s name. As Matt rightly pointed out in his excellent piece about Tote bets yesterday (it’s here in case you missed it), many people place their bets purely off the six numbers/letters in a horse’s form line. It’s not usually the best way!

Since 2008, these chasers pulled up last time out and now dropped in trip at the same level have won 144 of 1444 (10% SR) races. I did say the strike rate wasn’t high and certainly not high enough as the main stat behind an SotD selection, but good for a reinforcement when you realise the 351.4pts profit from those winners is equivalent to 24.3% of stakes invested.

Since 2012, the figures are slightly better with 56 winners from 541 (10.4% SR) for 213.8pts (+39.5% ROI), of which 401 were dropping in trip by up to 5f (4.5f for our runner today!). 46 of these 401 (11.5% SR) were winners and the level stakes of 193.6pts generated are worth 48.3p in the pound from all bets.

We’ve also got a good trainer/jockey combo here…

Since the start of 2012, today’s jockey, Noel Fehily’s record on board the Longsdon chasers priced at 6/1 or shorter is very good indeed with 33 wins from 100 (33% SR) for 30.6pts (+30.6% ROI!) profit

Orange Nassau comes back after a break of 178 days today, but I’m not too concerned about that to be honest. This fits in with the yard’s general strategy and if we look back to last year, this horse reappeared at Newton Abbot on the 11th October to win a chase over today’s trip by 12 lengths off the back of a 199-day layoff.

He weakened in the closing stages of his last run at Exeter in April and although he runs off the same mark today, he’s dropping back 4.5 furlongs to a trip where his record reads 6111 with the 6th place being his last run prior to the 199-day lay-off last year, so the similarities/patterns are clear to see.

It’s also worth noting that he’s 2P131 in these small fields races and whilst he’s never had an outing in September, he fits the Longsdon early season profile perfectly with a 2 from 2 record in October/November.

The weight might be an issue, but a horse proven at this trip and at this time of year 7/2 BOG is ample compensation to me, so I’m happy enough to place my 1pt bet on Orange Nassau today. I’ve taken 7/2 BOG from Boylesports, but you can get the same offer from Hills & BetVictor, when you…

 …click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Carlisle

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Here is today’s racecard.