Stat of the Day, 11th October 2014
A valiant effort from orange Nassau was in vain at Carlisle, as he was eventually outstayed after making all the running for pretty much all of the 3m2f trip on soft ground that had deteriorated from the overnight declared good going.
The change in going suited the eventual winner, Dark Glacier, better than it did for our runner, who had to settle for second place at 3/1 (in from our 7/2), a length and a half away from the winner.
Last one for this week now and I hope to end the week on a high with a winner from the…
And another old friend of SotD who is profitable overall and in decent form of late. The trainer in question is Mrs Dianne Sayer, who has a 20% strike rate over the last month with five winners from her twenty-five runners and she’ll be hoping to add to that tally with Endeavor who currently trades at 5/1 with BetVictor.
Dianne’s record in the last four years is both excellent and also profitable to back blindly, as I’ll now attempt to show you…
Since the start of 2011, 85 of her 688 (12.4% SR) runners have been winners and if you’d stuck a tenner on each of them, you’d now be £1247 to the good, which would be an 18.1% return on your money, not bad at all from blind backing.
If, however, like many people, you just stuck to betting on handicap races, your strike rate would be increased to 14.1% thanks to 81 winners from 576 and your ROI would have doubled to 36.2% as your £10 stakes would have amassed a tidy profit of £2083.
If you wanted to be a little more selective, you could restrict your involvement to those running at 9/4 and higher, but not above 20/1, you would then have 73 winners from 458 (15.9% SR) for 204.2pts profit at an ROI of 44.6%.
Today’s contest is a Class 5 handicap chase…
And over the last two years, the yard has done really well in this sphere with 22 winners from their 124 handicap chasers with that 17.7% strike rate generating 80.1pts profit at an ROI of 64.6% with those priced at 3/1 or higher winning 19 of 103 races (18.5% SR) for 92.3pts (+89.6% ROI) profit.
Dianne’s record here at Hexham is more than respectable too…
Despite being a small sample size, five winners from 27 handicappers is a strike rate of 18.5% and the 16.5pts profit are worth almost 61p back on top of every pound wagered. And if you put a simple 8/1 odds cap on those runners, the record is 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 6.5pts (+38% ROI).
We’ve got Ryan Day in the saddle, claiming 7lbs…
In NH handicaps since the start of 2011, there has been 13 winners from Mrs Sayer’s 96 horses ridden by 7lb claiming jockeys. The 13.5% strike rate has so far produced level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 79.2% and of those runners, the ones sent off in the 9/4 to 6/1 price range won 8 of 28 (28.6% SR) races for 13pts (+46.5% ROI) profit.
Endeavor is turned out quickly after his defeat last Sunday…
Things didn’t quite go to plan when beaten by just over ten lengths at Kelso last week and I’m not too surprised to see him turned out quickly to make amends for that run, as this would seem to be a tactic favoured by the trainer.
Over the last four years, her record with horses running within 15 days of their last run is 38 winners from 169 (22.5% SR) and these runners have generated level stakes profits of 74.5pts (+44.1% ROI).
And of those 169 horses, 50 were beaten by 10 lengths or more (or didn’t finish) with 10 of the 50 (20% SR) winning when turned back out, which in turn has made 31.1pts (+62.2% ROI) profit.
And that, as they say, is that. There are a host of stats to back up today’s selection and whilst it’s true that Endeavor‘s best efforts have been over hurdles, he does still have some decent chasing form under his belt in the past and to be frank, I think his yard have picked a pretty weak race to out him back into action.
I’m not convinced that this race will take much winning and if he runs to the level he’s capable of, then he has every chance here today. There will be doubts about him going back over fences, which have shown themselves in his current price, which could actually look quite generous come race time.
All things considered, I think there’s plenty of value and merit in a 1pt win bet on Endeavor at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. He’s already as low as 4/1 in places and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shorten further, but you can keep an eye on the odds if you…
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