Stat of the Day, 13th October 2014
Endeavor gave a decent account of himself up at Hexham on Saturday, but was unable to get away with conceding weight all round and was eventually run out of towards the business end of the race.
Our 5/1 selection was well backed, before being sent off at 11/4, but could only manage to finish fourth of the eight runners, beaten by nine lengths.
Monday looks pretty bleak on the stats front, so we’ll stay in the North East for a crack at the…
As regular readers of this column can testify, I’m not afraid of revisiting old ground or using a stat more than once in succession, as I’m a firm believer in the “if at first you don’t succeed…” school of thought, so with that in mind, here’s where I’m going today…
A 9/2 BOG bet on Langley House, trained by Dianne Sayer and ridden by Brian Hughes. For although Dianne’s runner couldn’t do the business for us on Saturday and she drew an overall blank, she’s still worth following.
In all NH races since the start of 2011, Dianne has saddled up 694 runners and their performances can be broken down as follows…
All races : 85 winners from 694 (12.3% SR) for 118.7pts (+17.1% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 10pts (+27.7% ROI)
In handicaps : 81/580 (14% SR) for 204.3pts (+35.2% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 9.2pts (+28.7% ROI)
Hurdle races : 59/464 (12.7% SR) for 114.3pts (+24.6% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 5/20 (25% SR) for 12.8pts (+64% ROI)
Handicap Hurdles : 55/375 (14.7% SR) for 174.9pts (+46.6% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 4/16 (25% SR) for 12pts (+75% ROI)
Hcp hurdles at Sedgefield : 7/31 (22.6% SR) for 77.3pts (+249.3% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 3/4 (75% SR) for 20.2pts (+505% ROI)
In addition to the above, Dianne Sayer’s runners have won 5 of 15 (33.33% SR) handicap hurdle races here at Sedgefield, when priced in the 5/2 to 8/1 price bracket , producing 17.3pts profit at an ROI of 115.2%, whilst each of the last three Sayer horses ridden here by Brian Hughes have been winners.
Langley House was placed in a couple of bumpers before embarking on what has been a bit of a stop start career over hurdles that has seen her compete just five times over a 27-month period. Her best runs have both resulted in two third place finishes here at Sedgefield with her best effort coming last time out.
She was flagging a little late on here at Sedgefield 13 days ago, but she showed plenty of signs of promise in the earlier parts of a race that offered several reasons of mitigation for her being a little one-paced on the run-in.
Firstly, she had been off the track for 402 days and she is entitled to have been a little rusty and should come on for having had a run. It was also her handicap debut, so the experience will do her good, as will a 1.5 furlong drop in trip and a 1lb easing in the weights. Senior pro jockey Brian Hughes takes the reins here and I’d also expect to get a little more of her than the 3lb claimer did last time out.
Langley House is still unexposed over hurdles after just five starts and has plenty of scope for improvement and offers decent value in a race that really wouldn’t take much winning and is a poor contest for a Class 4 event in my opinion.
So, the call today is a 1pt win bet on Langley House at 9/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook, which I would expect to shorten as the day progresses. 4/1 BOG is the generally available price, offered by at least five other firms, as can be seen when you…
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