Double Dutch, 13th October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th October 2014

After Friday’s faux pas, I was happy to get back to winning ways on Saturday with a double that paid 12.5/1, despite both of my first choices being successful with the added bonus of a 13/2 exacta for good measure.

I actually fancied both favourites on Saturday and added to them, a selection from each race that I felt could challenge at a value price. The markets seemed to agree with me, as both “second picks” were well backed (11/2 to 11/4 & 7/2 to 15/8), but failed to win.

This meant that my original 9.5/1 double paid out at 12.5/1, after Chesil Beach drifted out a point before landing her 4-timer at Musselburgh, giving us a nice 7/2 winner to take to Wolverhampton…

…where just three parts of a length separated my two picks to both complete a double and land the bonus of an exacta at 13/2, making Saturday easily the best day of our week.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Chesil Beach: won at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Swivel: u/p at 11/4 (adv 11/2)
——————————————
Illogical: won at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Magical Effect : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid out at 13/2 in this one.

Results to date:
372 winning selections from 1313 = 28.33%
120 winning bets in 342 days = 35.09%

Stakes: 683.50pts
Returns: 736.06pts

P/L : +52.56pts (+7.69% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Mondays are generally difficult, due to the low quality of racing on offer and with heavy ground at Windsor, the abandonment at Salisbury and a solitary jumps card at Sedgefield, you’d be forgiven for giving today a miss. But, as the old saying goes, the show must go on and here’s where I’m playing today…

4.10 Windsor:

I wouldn’t normally get involved with a 15-runner handicap on heavy ground and I might well be regretting doing so later this afternoon, but I can’t help but feel that this race is Polski Max‘s to lose. And with 24 races under his belt at the age of 4, he knows what the game is all about and whilst he’s on a fairly long losing run of 13 races over 16 months, there were signs of a return to form with a 4th place finish in a 20-runner contest at Ripon last time out.

That was the Class 2 William Hill Silver Trophy and he was only defeated by two short heads and half a length, a decent effort at that class 2 level and he now drops down to class 4 today. Incidentally 10 of those last 13 defeats have been at a higher grade than this race today, 7 of them at Class 2. He’s 1 from 1 on soft ground and has a win and a 2nd place from his two efforts on heavy. He has won three times at this trip and four times in better company, so I’d expect Polski Max to go in again today at 3/1 BOG.

You could make a case for several of his rivals, but I’m going to side with the in-form, yet unexposed Lady Brigid, who has finished 8251 in her four starts today, winning here over course and distance on soft ground last Monday. She won by three lengths that day and was full of running at the close, suggesting there’s plenty more to come from this one. She’s penalised for that win, of course, but she did look capable of still running well with a stiffer task ahead of her.

She’ll certainly have to work harder today with the added weight and a first crack at heavy ground, but she’s ran twice on soft ground, beaten by half a length by Buredyma (2 wins from 4 since) at Goodwood before last week’s C&D victory. It’s likely to develop into an interesting battle & test of stamina today, but there’s plenty of value in backing Lady Brigid at 9/1 BOG here. I might even be tempted with an E/W single here.

*

5.20 Sedgefield:

Billy Two Tongues is pretty lightly raced after just five starts and although his form of 33U44 isn’t massively confidence inspiring, it does hint at the possibility of some ability and the chance of a win somewhere and he did win a point to point immediately prior to his racecourse debut back in May of this year.

He has always looked like he’s wanted/needed further (has run at 2m5f to 3m1f so far) and today’s 3m 3.5f looks set to bring the best out of him and it’s worth noting that the form of his 4th place run at Southwell is working out well with the winner Kilfinichen Bay winning each of his three subsequent starts and the ruunner-up Dazzling Rita finishing 231 on her three following runs. This is a race that shouldn’t take too much winning and at 11/4 BOG, Billy Two Tongues is my preference ahead of…

…handicap debutante Supapowers who has looked nicely progressive in four Novice hurdles to date stepping up in trip along the way. This is another 3 furlongs further than her last effort 11 days at Southwell, where was beaten by just four lengths into second place, being “outsprinted” (if you can sprint ater 3 miles) on the run-in from the last. If she plugs on like she did that day, then the extra distance could well be the key to a first victory.

I also find it interesting that trainer Robert Stephens is sending just this one horse on a 560-mile round trip to run here when there will surely be options closer to home later in the week, suggesting he has identified this race as being a weak affair and the ideal opportunity to get his runner off the mark. Tom O’Brien is in the saddle today and he has a good record riding for Robert Stephens, winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) starts producing 30.2pts profit (+104.3% ROI) and will look to improve that tally with a win for Supapowers here at 2/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Polski Max / Supapowers @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Polski Max / Billy Two Tongues @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Lady Brigid / Supapowers @ 29/1 (9/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Lady Brigid / Billy Two Tongues @ 36.5/1 (9/1 & 11/4 : Ladbrokes, Coral  & Hills)