Stat of the Day, 14th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2014

Langley House looked an unwilling participant for quite a bit of the first circuit at Sedgefield on Monday afternoon and Brian Hughes not only earned his fee, but showed why he has such a good record at that track, as nudged, nurdled and generally cajoled the horse into taking part.

The second half of the race was a total contrast, as Langley House eased his way through the pack to eventually hit the front 2 out and despite a couple of awkward looking jumps to the left quickly opened up an unassailable lead.

He was eased down a bit once the race was won, but he was still 11 lengths clear at the post, securing a nice 9/2 win. And I’ll be hoping for more of the same on a tricky day in the…

4.00 Newcastle:

Now this is a 17-runner 3yo+ handicap over two miles and probably not the usual first port of call to find a bet of the day, but we’re siding with a famous name who has a stack of stats in his favour as we back Sir Mark Prescott’s 3 yr old Lady Bingo at 9/2 BOG.

It’s profitable to back Sir Mark blindly in handicaps…

As since 2008 his record in turf handicaps reads as 138 winners from 488 runners with the 28.3% strike rate generating 80.4pts at an ROI 0f 16.5% with a 4/12 record here at Newcastle.

His record with 3 yr olds is 116/345 (33.6% SR) for 86.6pts (+25.1% ROI) with all of his runners sent off in the 9/4 to 9/1 bracket winning 61 of 267 races (22.9% SR) for 100.8pts (+37.7% ROI).

All of which lead us to the record of his 3 yr old handicappers priced between 9/4 & 9/1 who have won 48 of 140 races (26.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 107.4pts at an ROI of 59.7%.

Lady Bingo steps up from 1m6f to 2 miles here…

Since the start of the 2010 campaign, Sir Mark has stepped 86 horses up in trip by two to four furlongs with 24 (27.9% SR) of those 86 coming home as winners, generating level stakes profits of 37.1pts along the way at an ROI of 50.1%

Of those 86 stepping up in trip, the record of those unexposed types with 4 or fewer previous runs is excellent. And this is particularly relevant as Lady Bingo makes only her third start in handicap company today.

Those stepping up in trip by 2 to 4 furlongs and with four or fewer handicap runs under their belts have won 23 of 68 (33.8% SR) races and this has produced 37.1pts (54.6% ROI) profit, with an 11/33 (33.33% SR) record in the 11/4 to 8/1 odds range yielding 46.8pts (+141.7% ROI) profit.

The old “weight for age” chestnut…

As I’ve mentioned in the past, 3 yr olds running in open age handicaps get a weight allowance on a sliding scale based on the length of the race and some trainers are more adept at taking advantage of this allowance than others. Sir Mark Prescott fits into this category with a 36.1% strike rate in this niche area.

That’s because he’s had 44 3yr old winners from 122 in open age handicaps which has rewarded his followers with profits of 35.2pts at an ROI of 26.7%.

This sliding scale of weight allowance has more effect in longer races, especially over trips of 1m2f and beyond, where stamina can really become tested.

Sir Mark excels at these longer trips when his horses are receiving the allowance with a record of 41 winners from 93 (44.1% SR) producing 45.9pts profit at an ROI of 49.4% and it’as worth noting that these figures aren’t skewed by any big winners, as there were just two runners priced higher than 8/1 and both were beaten! Lady Bingo receives a massive 11lbs here, effectively putting her second to bottom weight.

Lady Bingo has been stepped up in trip in each of her last three outings, gradually moving from 1m to 1m6f last time out and always looking like she needed/wanted further, so today’s two miles should be ideal for her to get off the mark after finishing second last time out when a length and a half shy of the faster finishing Oracle Boy at Wolverhampton 10 days ago.

She cost 250,000 dollars as a yearling and her breeding by Galileo suggests she’ll have ability to win races, especially as her brother Foundry was fifth in last year’s St Leger.

And I should, of course, mention the jockey…

…Luke Morris and his excellent record on the Prescott handicappers which currently stands at 49 winners from 160 with the resultant 30.6% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 36.7pts at an ROI of 22.9% with a 3/6 record here at Newcastle.

Luke has ridden 41 of those winners on board Sir Mark’s 111 three year olds (36.9% SR) generating 36.6pts (+33% ROI) profits, figures slightly improved by imposing a simple 9/1 odds cap taking us to 41/105 (39.1% SR) for 42.6pts (+40.6% ROI).

So, yes it’s a 17-runner handicap, but you could safely discount three quarters of the field and the plethora of stats listed are enough to satisfy me to place a 1pt win bet on Lady Bingo at 9/2 BOG with Coral. Hills & Ladbrokes are also offering this price, but be careful with the latter, as they are non-BOG until 9.00am on race day.

You can see the whole market forming when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.