Stat of the Day, 15th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2014

Lady Bingo seemed to run in patches at Newcastle, but did her best to track the leaders and remain in a fairly handy position. She was, however, on of the first to need a reminder or two from her jockey and when the final kick for home was needed, she struggled to get out and away.

She laboured on through the final two furlongs a little one-paced and was spared the stick one the game was up. She eventually finished 7th of the 16 runners, beaten by around 8.5 lengths. I’m sure that with a drive, she could have nearer, but there was little point in my opinion, as she never really looked like winning.

80 miles or so down the A1 (M) today for some hurdles action in the…

5.35 Wetherby:

And a successful trainer/jockey combo who combine with a 7/2 BOG yard debutant, the 7 yr old Kaysersberg.

Gavin Sheehan has a good record riding for Warren Greatrex…

As 35 winners from 135 rides (25.9% SR) will testify, as would the 70.25pts level stakes profits accrued at an ROI of 52% with most success coming when there’s money on the table for these lads. When the partnership’s runners are priced below 5/1, their record reads 14 winners from 37 (37.8% SR) for 27pts (+73% ROI) profit.

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Best known for bumper success, Warren’s no mug with hurdlers either…

Mr Greatrex is best known for producing winners of bumper races, but his record over hurdles isn’t too shabby either, especially when there’s money coming for his runners. His sub-5/1 hurdlers are 47/134 (35.1% SR) for 17.9pts profit at an ROI of 13.4%, figures that can be improved by discarding any runners below 6/4, which then leaves us with a record 34 from 107 (31.8% SR) for 21.4pts (+20% ROI).

Of these runners, he does well with 6 and 7 yr olds with 20 winners from 46 (43.5% SR) for 27pts (+58.7% ROI) profit.

He doesn’t come to Wetherby often…

…but his recent record suggests he should visit more frequently, as 4 of his 7 runners (57.1% SR) here in the last two years have been winners, generating 8pts (+114.6% ROI) profit. Those running below 5/1 are 4/5, whilst Gavin Sheehan is 3 from 4.

The last six months have been kind to the yard…

As they’ve clocked up 24 winners from 63 runners (38.1% SR) in the last six months, producing modest profits of 10.5pts at an ROI of 16.6%. Modest returns are to be expected as the Greatrex runners do tend to attract late support (which is why we like to get in early!), as seen by the fact that 46 of the 63 were sent off below 5/1. 23 of these 46 sub-5/1 runners (50-% SR) were successful, achieving level stakes profits of 16.3pts (+35.5% ROI), with Gavin Sheehan’s contribution adding up to 18 winners from 32 (56.25% SR) for 18.3pts (+57.1% ROI) profit.

Kaysersberg has recently moved over from Neil King’s yard…

Warren does tremendously well at getting horses to win on their yard debut, and since the start of 2011, his record with yard debutants reads 25 winners from 85 runners (29.4% SR) and these winners have helped to reward the yard’s followers with level stakes profits of 72.3pts (+85% ROI) to date. Gavin has ridden 12 winners from 27 (44.4% SR) for 12.5pts profit with all 12 winners coing from the 17 horses priced at 6/1 or shorter.

12/17 represents an excellent 70.6% strike rate and the resultant 22.5pts profits are worth 132.2% of all stakes invested.

Kaysersberg takes a drop in class to run here….

And since the start of 2012, this yard has had 7 winners from the 31 runners (22.6% SR) dropping down a grade, generating 29.2pts (+94.3% ROI) level stakes profits.

As I said earlier, Kaysersberg was previously with Neil King and has already won 5 of his 16 races (31.25%) races to date, whilst making the frame on a further 5 occasions, so he knows what the game is about. He has won two of his four starts this year with a 131 record at this Class 3 level. He was pulled up on his last outing at Cheltenham at Class 2 back in April and now reappears after 181 days.

I’m not too concerned about this lay-off as, I’m sure the Greatrex team will have well prepared for this outing and I also noticed that he has previously won staying on over 2m5f (2m6f today) after an absence of 205 days. I think he’s got a real chance if in he right frame of mind and so I’m happy to back Kaysersberg at 7/2 BOG with SkyBet. The price is available in at least four other places, so for your pick of the bookies…

 …click here for the latest betting on the 5.35 Wetherby

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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