Stat of the Day, 16th October 2014
A good day at the office for Messrs Greatrex & Sheehan as they topped and tailed the card with winners in the first and last races at Wetherby for a nice 18/1 double for those that decided to take that path.
Our official selection was a pretty comfortable winner, as Kaysersberg led from start to finish and won virtually unchallenged. He clattered a couple of hurdles, but never looked in danger, eventually winning by 5 lengths or so at a vastly reduced price of 11/8.
We’d got on at 7/2, but his main (and only credible one in my eyes) rival Nexius was a 3/1 withdrawal leading to a 30p Rule 4 deduction, which meant we were on at 2.45/1, which still comfortably smashed the SP, a price which was probably still quite fair.
It all means we’ve guaranteed our weekly profit with three further opportunities to come, the first of which goes in Thursday’s…
A Class 6 handicap for 3 yr olds over a mile on heavy ground, where Oisin Murphy will ride Andrew Balding’s 7/2 BOG rated Stybba.
As regular readers are aware, I do like to find trainers who can be backed blindly as a starting point for any trainer-based selection and Andrew Balding not only fits the bill, the sheer sample size of the stat is quite astonishing. The more runners you take as a sample, the harder it is to find a workable stat, but since the start of 2008, you could simply have backed every single one of Andrew’s 4015 (yes, over 4000!) runners and still walked away with a reasonable profit.
A simple £10 stake would have meant an outlay of £40,150, but level stakes profits of £5753 at Betfair SP (even higher at BOG, one has to assume) represent a 14.3% return on your money and that’s because 575 of the 4015 (14.3% SR) were winners with 6 profitable years from 7 along the way. And from this we find…
Here at Brighton : 12/62 (19.4% SR) for 12pts (19.4% ROI) profit
Runners over 7 to 9 furlongs : 252/1826 (13.8% SR) for 525.2pts (+28.8% ROI)
On heavy ground : 21/81 (25.9% SR) for 28.6pts (+35.3% ROI)
The last couple of years has seen the emergence of Oisin Murphy…
…clearly a very talented jockey carving out some impressive early figures of his own. Here at Brighton, he gas ridden two winners and a runner-up finish aboard four Balding horses in an overall record at this course reading 11 winners from 60 (18.3% SR) for 9.12pts (+15.2% ROI) profit and his overall record for Andrew Balding is also very good with 37 winners from 162 rides (22.8% SR) generating level stakes profits of 89.5pts at an ROI of 55.3%.
He’s 3/5 (60% SR) for 8.8pts (+176% ROI) when riding the yard’s horses on heavy ground and we should take a keen interest if there’s money down for a Balding/Murphy combo, as their record with horses priced between Evens and 6/1 is 31 winners from 78 runners (39.7% SR) for profits of some 55.7pts (+71.4% ROI)
It’s a quick turnaround for Stybba…
…who was actually beaten by less than a length (0.5 l plus a neck) by the reopposing Improvized over this course and distance on similarly heavy ground just nine days ago. Our selection is now 6lbs better off for the rematch and I’d expect that to be more than enough today and history suggests to back up this theory.
Since 2008, Andrew Balding’s runners sent out less than a fortnight after a top four finish, where they either won or were within four lengths of the winner, went on to win 69 of 291 (23.7% SR) reappearances. It’s a tactic that appears to have served both him and his followers well, as the resultant 79.9pts profit are a welcome return of 27.5% above stakes invested.
I looked a little further into those numbers and something struck me! It was the wife with a frying pan. It wasn’t really, I’m digressing 😀
What struck me was that the sprinters (5f) and the stayers (2 milers) didn’t fare too well and this makes perfect sense to me, as the two extremes of distance really must take more out of a horse and mean they’ll need more than a fortnight to recover. So, I looked at those running within a fortnight of a win/close defeat coming back at trips of 6 to 14 furlongs and this is what I found…
65 winners from 245 runners at a strike rate of 26.5% producing level stakes profits of 110pts at an ROI of 44.9%, figures which can be further refined to those running at prices of Evens to 12/1 where 59 of 213 (27.7% SR) were winners yielding profits of 131.4pts (+61.7% ROI).
As I said earlier Stybba‘s main rival is now 6lbs worse off and our selection has experience of course, distance and ground conditions which should be a helping factor here today. That last run was her best to date and she ran off 60 wearing a visor for the first time. The visor is back in place and her mark is unaltered, which means we might well have a bit of value from a 1pt win bet on Stybba at 7/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook. You can get the same price from SkyBet, whilst she’s as low as 3/1 BOG in other places, as can be seen if you…
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