Stat of the Day, 17th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2014

No joy for us at Brighton, I’m afraid, as Stybba went down to a defeat by almost two lengths back in third place. She ran well enough in fairness and had every chance, but looked a little reluctant to try and pass the leaders.

Oisin Murphy tried at least twice to get her to attempt to go around the two in front, but each time she wanted to tuck herself back to the left and sit in behind the leaders to the line. It was a bit of a pity as we’d looked well set to cash in a 7/2 ticket from a 2/1 favourite, but there’ll be other days!

I’m hoping Friday will be one of those other days with our runner in the…

2.05 Cheltenham:

A Class 2 Novice Hurdle over 2m5f on good to soft ground where Nigel Twiston-Davies’ 5 yr old, 5/2 BOG shot, Blaklion attempts to defend his unbeaten three race career under Rules.

Nigel’s a dab hand in these Novice events…

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With a record reading 169 winners from 1067 (15.8% SR) for 347.7pts (+32.5% ROI) profit since 2008, with Novice Hurdles proving particularly profitable with 386.6pts profit accrued at an ROI of 57.8% via 98 winners from 669 (14.7% SR).

His yard is in unsurprisingly  good form…

3 winners from 10 in the last fortnight (30% SR) and 6 from 29 in the last month (20.7% SR) are what we’ve come to expect from NTD at this time of year. Since 2008 the months of September and October have been excellent for his yard with 122 winners from 627 runners (19.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 259pts at an ROI of 41.3% with his hurdlers winning 50 of 279 races (17.9% SR) for profits of 204.8pts (+73.4% ROI).

The bulk of the runners and profits come in October, where his record reads 78/427 (18.3% SR) for 202.9pts at 47.5% ROI. Once again his hurdlers have excelled winning 33 of 174 races (19% SR) and earning backers a fantastic 184.3pts, and that’s £10.59 profit from every £10 bet placed!

Here at Cheltenham in October, the team has had 6 winners from 29 (20.7% SR) for 20.3pts (+70.1% ROI)

After winning a PTP, Blaklion is now 3/3 under rules…

Since 2009, unbeaten horses contesting hurdles races at Classes 1 to 3 (ie pretty decent standard!) have managed to maintain their 100% status on 94 of 295 (31.9% SR) occasions. And these winners have produced profits of 93pts to date at an ROI of 31.5%.

From this…5 yr olds (Like Blaklion) are 41/120 (34.2% SR) for 31.5pts (+26.3% ROI)
Those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 89/220 (40.5% SR) for 90.4pts (+41.1% ROI) and…
those with 4 or fewer runs to their name are 87/277 (31.4% SR) for 97.3pts (+35.1% ROI) profit.

You can actually mix and match those above to your heart’s content and I won’t bore/overload you with the permutations, but I will finish with this one…

Unbeaten 5 to 7 yr olds running in Class 1 to 3 hurdles races with 4 or fewer runs to their name have a 55/148 (37.2% SR) record when priced below 9/1 and these runners have made 78.9pts profit at an ROI of 53.3%.

So, a horse in form, a yard in form and a yard that does well at this time of year. Blaklion has won on good ground and also on soft ground, there’s no reason why he won’t get good to soft. He won over 2m 4.5f at Perth last time out and despite returning from a 21-week break still had plenty in hand. he’ll strip fitter for that run and the extra half furlong shouldn’t inconvenience him too much, especially as most of his rivals might just need the run.

A little shorter than my usual selections, but I’m more than happy with a 1pt win bet on Blaklion at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports today. For all the other firms’ prices…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.05 Cheltenham

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Here is today’s racecard.

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