Stat of the Day, 18th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2014

Blaklion was a late withdrawal yesterday, meaning no bet for us to report on. Mind you, that might be a blessing in disguise after a really difficult day for punters.

Saturday brings about its usual but very different challenge of almost providing too much choice, but  think I might just have something in the last race of the night aka the…

9.15 Wolverhampton:

Where Chris Wall’s 3 yr old filly, Norfolk Sound is a 4/1 BOG chance of success on her A/W bow.

Chris is one of the more successful A/W trainers around over the last few years…

And in true SotD fashion, he’s profitable to back blindly! 😀 Since the start of 2011, 41 of his 228 A/W runners have been victorious with that 18% strike rate generating level stakes profits of £1451.20 to £10 level stakes, which represents a 63.7% return on your money from blind backing. Those are stats we like and his three year olds are 28/119 (23.5% SR) for 71.6pts (+60.2% ROI).

I now want to take you into ever decreasing circles of sample sizes all stemming from his record in handicaps, which currently reads 35 winners from 154 runners (22.7% SR) for 101.6pts profit at an ROI of 66%, from which…

…those running at the lower end of racing, ie classes 5 & 6, have won 28 of 125 (22.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+77.7% ROI), with the optimum times for the C5/6 horses being…

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…August through to February, where the record stands at 27/102 (26.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 112.1pts (+109.9% ROI), and of these 102 runners…

…there were 21 winners from the 64 three year olds, whose 32.8% strike rate has yielded profits of  98.9pts at an ROI of 154.5%.

Norfolk Sound is a 3yr old in an open age handicap…

And therefore receives a small weight allowance of 4lbs, enabling her to be more competitive. I’ve written quite a bit in the past about the weight for age scheme and how certain trainers are very good at it. Well, Chris Wall is no mark Johnston when it comes to making the most of this allowance, but he’s certainly no mug either.

Since the start of 2001, his 3yr olds have won 12 of 367 (32.4% SR) open age handicaps on the A/W and have generated some 61.9pts profit at an ROI of 167.3% to date. To link back to the set of stats above, his 3yr olds in open age handicaps at Class 5/6 level in the August to February time frame are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 56.7pts (+177% ROI).

Norfolk Sound switches to the A/W after 5 runs on grass…

Chris Wall is well known for gradually bringing his horses through and his regular practices involve giving his horses a few runs on turf before switching them to the All-Weather, where they often add to his excellent record I’ve already mentioned. This is a tactic employed on 27 occasions in the last four years with 7 of the “switchers” winning on their A/W bow. And if a 25.9% strike rate wasn’t enough to attract your attention, then maybe the 143% ROI achieved by 38.6pts will do!

From that 7/27 record, we see…
…3 winners from 10 (30% SR) here at Wolverhampton for 21.2 pts (+212.2% ROI) profit and…
…6 winners from 20 (30% SR) three year olds for 43.3pts (+216.6%ROI), which combined gives…
…2/8 Wolverhampton 3 yr olds for 20.9pts (+261.8% ROI).

Ted Durcan is in the saddle today…

And not only does Ted have a great record here at Wolverhampton he also rides well for Chris Wall, especially in A/W handicaps. Firstly, let’s look at Ted’s record here at the track, where since the start of 2009 he has ridden 44 winners from 200 rides, a very healthy 22% strike rate resulting in level stakes profits of just over 51pts at an ROI of 25.5%.

His record in handicaps here is 26/121 (21.5% SR) for 52.5pts (+43.4% ROI) and his overall record on the Wall string is worth looking at too.

In A/W handicaps since 2011.Ted has ridden 12 winners from 50 on Chris’ horses with the 24% strike rate yielding 70.5pts profit (+141.1% ROI), of which theres’ an 8/26 (30.8% SR) record with 3yr olds that has produced 64.23pts (+247.1% ROI), whilst the 3 yr olds in open age handicaps have won 5 of 16 (31.25% SR) contests, bringing in 45.6pts (+284.7% ROI).

Meanwhile Ted is 4/9 for 23.9pts here at Wolverhampton for Mr Wall in the last couple of years.

A form line of 59347 on turf prior to an A/W debut isn’t normally something that would send you scurrying to the bookies, but Norfolk Sound really fits the Chris Wall profile. He’s brought her along steadily, gradually moving her up in trip and today represents another step further in trip (one that she seems to have been asking for). he has been eased a couple of pounds by the assessor for this one and I find it particularly interesting to see a senior pro jockey of almost 7,000 rides take over from the group of claimers that have ridden this horse to defeat so far, since Ted rode her on debut.

The switch in code, the drop in weight and the increased trip combined with the yard’s MO certainly make this an interesting little conundrum and one that I’m prepared to tackle with a 1pt win bet on Norfolk Sound at 4/1 BOG. That’s with Paddy Power, whilst bet365 offer 7/2 in the only other book opened so far on this race. Mind you it is another 21 hours or so before race time!

Once the other firms open for business, you’ll be able to check their prices when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 9.15 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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