Stat of the Day, 21st October 2014
No dream start to the week I’m afraid, as Calm Attitude somewhat floundered in the wind and rain at Windsor on Monday afternoon. She was well held up for a run at the rear of the field and struggled to make any serious impact as she attempted to make ground on the leaders whilst running into the storm.
She passed a few on her way home but was still eventually beaten back into fifth place, a little over 4 lengths shy of the winner. The leading pair broke well clear with less than two furlongs to run and had our runner been closer at the time, things might have been different.
Then again, it could also be argued that she looked like the handicapper had her in his grip and she failed to carry the weight allotted to her. Either way, we’ll never know. What we do know is that our 7/2 bet was sent off at 3/1 and didn’t win.
The Flat is winding down now, and so I turn my attention today towards a Class 4 handicap chase, looking for the winner of the…
Where I’m drawn towards Caroline Keevil’s 7 yr old mare, Midnight Lira.
Whose name hints at the identity of her sire…
…Midnight Legend, whose offspring I like to back over obstacles. Since 2009, his progeny have won some 259 races at a strike rate of 15.2% from their 1701 outings. Between them, they have generated 711pts at an ROI of 41.8%, which is very impressive from blindly backing such a large sample size.
If you wanted to place fewer bets, you could just back them in handicap contests, where their record stands at 175 winners from 1083, a strike rate of 16.2% that has generated level stakes profits of 618.9pts, or 57.1% of all stakes invested.
In handicap chases, the figures are even better with a 112/584 (19.2% SR) record yielding 399.1pts (+68.3% ROI) profit with those runners competing over trips of 3m2f or shorter winning 107 of 543 (19.7% SR) races. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 392.3pts at an ROI of 72.2% with a record here at Exeter of 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 17.9pts (+119.3% ROI).
Midnight Lira was a winner here (over this trip too) last time out…
Exeter seems to suit past course and distance winners, especially those returning from a win last time out. Since 2008 former Exeter course and distance winners returning on the back of any win anywhere have gone on to win again on 19 of 56 repeat visits. This excellent 33.9% strike rate has produced 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 77%, whilst handicappers have a record of 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 44.4pts (+108.3% ROI), whilst chasers are 8/20 (40% SR) for 19.9pts (+95% ROI).
All of which then brings us to handicap chasers who have won 4 of 13 (30.8% SR) for 19.4pts at an ROI of 148.8% to date.
So, what of Midnight Lira herself?
Well, she’s a dual C&D winner whose record reads 411 at this course and distance over fences. She’s 3/6 over fences when ridden by James Best who takes the ride (and his 3lb claim) here again today, just as he did for those 2 C&D wins previously.
Midnight Lira is up 5lbs for that last win to a mark of 109, but she did win over this course and distance off 111 at a higher grade three starts ago and she’s 2 from 3 when rated in triple figures, so I’m not too overconcerned about the weight here. I think the potential issue revolves around how she handles coming back from a six month break from action and whether she’ll be race ready or need a run.
This has, however, been reflected in her price and I’m going to take a safety-first approach on a just in case basis and play a 0.5pt E/W bet on Midnight Lira at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor.
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