Double Dutch, 22nd October 2014
My first day back in the chair unfortunately went the same way as Matt signed off on Monday with a 1-2! And this time we were just a head away from landing a double at 13/1.
Taysh improved as I thought he might and the Dettori/Gosden partnership proved a winner once again. A drift out to 3/1 was very welcome and this is because our other runner Perceus was backed (from 2/1 to 10/11) as though he couldn’t lose, but lose he certainly did!
Unfortunately, though Taysh’s win counted for little but my pride, after we narrowly missed out 10 minutes earlier at Lingfield, when Secret Glance failed by a head to rein in the winner who had made all.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Secret Glance: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Longside: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Taysh: WON at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Perceus: u/p at 10/11 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
380 winning selections from 1340 = 28.36%
122 winning bets in 349 days = 34.96%
P/L : +43.96pts (+6.30% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s selected races are as follows…
Breeding would tend to suggest that Alnashama will turn out to be a decent sort and he does in fact hold a Derby entry. He’s by Dubawi and ran really well last time out, but was just nailed late on at Newcastle, having attempted to make all. He went down by just head that day, which was a significant improvement on his debut run at Leicester and further improvement is expected here. Paul Hanagan had the pick of three runners here, but opted to stay with Alnashama, who can make his experience tell at 5/2 BOG.
There seems to be some support for Bollihope here too today. He stayed on well to finish 4th (beaten by 2L) at Sandown in July on his only run to date and should come on for having had a public outing. He was half a length ahead of Dance of Fire that day and that horse has since won twice (including a Class 2 contest) and has competed in a Group 3 event 11 days ago. Bollihope is another for whom improvement is expected and we can currently back him at 11/4 BOG.
The absence of Great Glen looks to have left the door open for Legends Gate who represents the in-form Charlie Appleby whose record here at Kempton is excellent. His runners have a 24% strike rate here, whilst his 2 yr olds do even better at 26.4% and Legends Gate looks in a good position to add to that tally with a win here at 15/8 BOG.
He was only headed late on at Newmarket on debut 18 days when finishing a close third (nk & sh) at 20/1 and will surely come on for having had that effort.
The main challenges should come from newcomer China Club and the second time out Spanish Squeeze and although we’ll get a better price (5/1) for the former, I’m going to side with Spanish Squeeze by virtue of him having had racecourse experience when showing plenty of promise in finishing third on debut.
He was a little outpaced in the closing stages over 7f at Newmarket almost four weeks ago and the extra furlong should be to his advantage today. And although he was beaten by just over three lengths that day, the horse immediately (1.5 lengths back) behind him, Mutamakkin has since stepped up in class to win a Class 3 race at York. 2/1 BOG is the current best price for Spanish Squeeze.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Alnashama / Legends Gate @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Coral)
Alnashama / Spanish Squeeze @ 9.5/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Bollihope / Legends Gate @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : Betfred)
Bollihope / Spanish Squeeze @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfred)