Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2014
In hindsight (which, of course, is a wonderful thing!) Yorkshire probably wasn’t the best selection I’ve made recently, but he certainly wasn’t the worst! Yes, he finished 6th of 11, a couple of lengths or so outside the placings, but there were still some redeeming features about the run.
He was well placed with every chance of at least a place with a furlong to go, but as the pack converged, he seemed to get sandwiched and didn’t have the fight and/or the strength to squeeze through a narrowing gap. He quickly faded out of contention at that point, I’m afraid, but would possibly have fared better with a clearer run. Who knows?
The other silver lining was, of course, getting 8/1 from Coral about a 5/1 runner. You’re probably sick of hearing me (and Matt!) chanting the geegeez value mantra, but if you consistently beat SP, you will make profit. 3yrs (almost!) of SotD is the proof of that particular pudding. More pressing and/or relevant, of course, is Wednesday’s runner, who goes in the…
A Class 4 handicap chase over 3 miles and half a furlong and the 9yr old Minella Bliss, who can be backed at 4/1 BOG and…
…who is trained by James (HJ) Evans.
James Evans doesn’t have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, nor is he one of the bigger names, but he’s very successful at training handicap chasers. Since 2010, 20 of his 104 handicap chasers have been successful and this 19.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 47.8pts at an ROI of 45.9% to date.
If we apply a simple 5/2 to 10/1 odds filter to his runners, we are then left with 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+85.9% ROI) profit. Not the biggest sample size ever, but a tidy little micro system you could use as part of a bigger portfolio.
Minella Bliss last won 22 races ago off a mark of 101…
…but runs here off just 81 and the lack of a win doesn’t worry too much, as he’s showing signs of a return to form, now at this lower mark. In fact, since 2008, horses running in handicap chases at a lower mark than their last winning effort and racing on the back of a losing streak of 10 races or more, have managed to get off the cold list 12.1% of the time by winning 250 of 2068 races, generating 527.9pts profit at an ROI of 25.5%.
Those long-time losers who were running at a mark 10lbs to 24lbs lower than their last win were successful in 83 of 672 races (12.4% SR) and ade level stakes profits of 181.9pts at an ROI of 27.1%.
The optimum odds range for these runners is 2/1 to 7/1, where the record reads as 50 winners from 220 (22.7% SR) for 66.2pts (+30.1% ROI).
He’s also what Matt calls Hard Fit…
That is to say he’s aged 3 to 9, will be priced at around 6/1 or lower for his second run inside a week and has at least 2 runs under his belt in the last three months. Such horses perform really well, even if they’re only marginally profitable to back blindly.
Since 2008, there has been 2798 such NH runners and the 765 winners represents a strike rate of some 27.3% with the levels takes profits of 93.8pts equasting to a 3.4% return on stakes invested.
3.4% ROI isn’t anything to write home about, but any filter-free micro system that is profitable to back blindly is a good starting point for us to become more selective! 😀
We can more than double the ROI by just considering those runners who were in the first four home last time out. This produces 676 winners from 2278 , increasing the strike rate by about a tenth to 29.7% and the ROI becomes 6.9% via 155.7pts profit.
9 yr olds (like our runner today!) actually do better than the average, winning 86 of 277 races (31.1% SR) for 63 pts (22.9% ROI), whilst those 8 yr olds in the first four home, but didn’t actually win last time out were ultimately successful on 47 of 147 (32% SR) occasions, registering level stakes profits of 64.5pts at an ROI of 43.9%
Minella Bliss was second to What A Good Night at Uttoxeter last Thursday and whilst he was flattered by the one length margin of defeat (the winner had the race sewn up from a long way out and coasted home), he did put some distance between him and some better-rated and more in-form runners and there’s no horse of the winner’s calibre on display here today.
The favourite is, of course, the fly in the ointment, but he returns off the back of a 19-week absence and might not only be rusty, but also struggle to concede 24lbs to our selection today.
Minella Bliss has a decent chance if on his game and running in the same attitude frame of mind that has seen him in the frame in his last two starts, both when ridden by today’s jockey, the 5lb claimer Ben Poste. I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Minella Bliss here and I’m taking the 4/1 BOG on offer from Coral, but if you want to shop around…
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