Double Dutch, 23rd October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd October 2014

Deja vue, groundhog day, call it what you will, but for the third successive day we rattled the crossbar with another winner/runner-up combo.

Once again race 2 provided the winner (perhaps I’m better at later races!) where Spanish Squeeze beat the 6/4 favourite Legends Gate by the best part of two lengths to give us a 1-2 finish and those playing the exacta were paid out at almost 9/1. The other horse I’d highlighted as a danger was indeed third and the trifecta (which I certainly didn’t do!) was around the 125/1 mark.

Spanish Squeeze had a welcome drift out to 3/1, which meant that had we found the winner in race 1, we’d have made a 13/1 double on the day, but unfortunately Alnashama was headed with a furlong to run after hanging badly left, eventually being defeated by just over two lengths to a 7/2 debutant Ooty Hill.

We’re close, but still not quite close enough.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Alnashama: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Bollihope: u/p at 10/3 (adv 11/4)
Spanish Squeeze: WON at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Legends Gate: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 15/8)

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Results to date:
381 winning selections from 1344 = 28.35%
122 winning bets in 350 days = 34.86%

Stakes: 699.50pts
Returns: 741.46pts

P/L : +41.96pts (+6.00% ROI)


This is how I see Thursday panning out…

3.45 Ludlow:

This looks like a sighter for Buywise here today with a run over hurdles before resuming an impressive chasing career which stands at four wins from five, including a Grade 2 win last time out. And although he reverts back to the smaller obstacles here after a six months absence, he’s the classiest horse on show here and represents a yard in really good nick: Evan Williams is 10/29 over the last month. Buywise has never competed over hurdles here at Ludlow, but does get the track, as he’s 2 from 2 over fences here and looks well placed to complete a course hat-trick at 13/8 BOG.

13/8 BOG is also the price for smart Flat convert Area Fifty One. He a former Class 2 winner on the Flat and has run in Listed/Group company prior to switching to Nicky Henderson for a hurdling career, where he really couldn’t be in better hands. He comes here in good nick, having won last time out at Uttoxeter 18 days ago. He won’t be found lacking for Flat speed and the only potential issue is the concession of weight to his rivals.

Area Fifty One‘s weight and step up in class allied to Buywise‘s drop in trip after a layoff mean it’s difficult to call between them, but I can’t see one of them not winning this and all things considered, they should be the first two home.


4.50 Ludlow:

Bob Will came back from a 15-week break to finish second at Towcester a fortnight ago, but he did seem to struggle to see out the 3 mile trip that day, only just holding on to second place after being headed at the last fence. The drop back in trip will really help him here in what looks a desperately poor contest. That run at Towcester was his first for his new handlers and if they can eke a little bit more from him today, he could very well take this at 7/4 BOG, especially as he has been eased in the weights and now runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last winning effort.

The main threat must surely come from Kings Apollo, who is similarly priced up at 15/8 BOG, who goes well fresh and seems to save his best for this time of year. He ran here at Ludlow last November off the back of a 475 day break and won, starting a sequence of decent performance reading 1214. he went off the boil in the spring before being put back in the shed for the last 193 days. He was badly hampered and unseated his rider at the first fence on his chasing debut, so this is effectively a second debut over fences. He has won here in the past and should push Bob Will home in a weak race.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Buywise / Bob Will @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Buywise / Kings Apollo @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Area Fifty One / Bob Will @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Area Fifty One / Kings Apollo @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : SkyBet)

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