Stat of the Day, 24th October 2014
We didn’t get much of a run from Minella Bliss at Southwell on Thursday as he only made it as far as the third fence before coming a cropper.
There’ll have been plenty of discarded betting slips as our 4/1 advised selection was sent off as the 9/4 joint favourite, validating my belief that he was over priced. As it was, he was going along nicely, but didn’t seem to get high enough at fence three, it looked like his knees went through the top of it and down he and jockey Ben Poste came.
Thankfully they were both unscathed by the incident, but we’re still shy a winner or two this week, something I aim to rectify in Friday’s…
Where Saeed bin Suroor gives a handicap/nursery debut to the 2yr old colt Best Example, who comes here stepping up in both trip and class from his win over 7 furlongs in a Class 4 maiden at Musselburgh 26 days ago and he’s priced at 9/2 BOG to follow up today.
The yard has an excellent record with their juveniles…
Since 2009, Saeed bin Suroor has trained 224 winners from the 780 two year olds sent to the track with this 28.7% strike rate producing a modest but handy 89.2pts profit at an ROI of 11.4% from blind backing and in nurseries that record is 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 18.4pts (+27.1% ROI)
Saeed’s two year olds who were sent off at 9/1 or shorter won 216 of 688 (31.4% SR) races producing 120.1pts profit (+17.5% ROI) , with the sub-5/1 runners performing best with 192 winners from 498 (38.6% SR) generating an excellent 103.8pts profit at an ROI of 20.9%.
And these sub 5/1 two yr olds have a superb record here at Doncaster winning 10 of 21 (47.6% SR) races for 13.30pts (+63.3% ROI).
Today is Best Example’s handicap debut…
Saeed bin Suroor’s handicap debutants on the Flat have a record of 39 wins from 184 races (21.2% SR) with the 13.2 pts profit coming in at an ROI of 7.2% and from this we derive the following…
Two year olds : 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 2.9pts (+9.4% ROI)
Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+44.5% ROI)
In October : 4/20 (20% SR) for 8.9pts (+44.6% ROI)
Over 1 mile : 12/49 (24.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+57.9% ROI)
Up In Trip by up to 1.5f : 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+96.6% ROI)
Up In Class : 21/99 (21.2% SR) for 12.8pts (+12.9% ROI)
And those stepping up to Class 3 : 7/31 (22.6% SR) for 21.1pts (+68.2% ROI)
In addition to the proliferation of facts and figures above, we should consider the blistering recent form of the yard, who have had 21 winners from 72 runners in the past month (29.2% SR) and although Best Example steps up in trip today, he was staying on well when winning by the best part of three lengths last time out, suggesting that he’ll definitely want further in future.
It has to be added, though, that an opening handicap mark of 81 makes this far from a gimme and this has been recognised by the trainer who has elected to put a 5lb (Kevin Stott) on board to make our runner that little bit more competitive at the weights.
And the presence of the claimer doesn’t put me off either, as Kevin’s proving to be no mug and is in really good nick himself with 6 wins from 28 (21.4% SR) in the last four weeks and this will be his fifth ride for Saeed bin Suroor and he hasn’t let the trainer in the past. A defeat by just a neck on board Romance Story at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the only blot on a sequence reading 1211 in his four starts for the yard.
I think that the opening mark of 81 is partially responsible for what looks a fairly generous price here and so I have no qualms about placing a 1pt win bet on Best Example at 9/2 BOG with Paddy Power, but to see the rest of the market…
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